Trade War 2.0, Tariffs and Inflation

This phase of the process only covers about 60% of what's owed.

“The only thing certain is uncertainty,” said Brian Duncan, an Illinois hog and soybean farmer.

Federal customs authorities are set to begin processing refunds next week for import taxes struck down by the Supreme Court. But for small businesses, the process could get complicated.

The Trump administration says it’ll start issuing refunds for tariffs the Supreme Court ruled were collected illegally next week.

With more than 50 trade policy changes over the past 12 months, keeping the score on tariffs was no easy task — even for economists.

Before they were overturned by the Supreme Court, the Trump administration’s tariffs announced on April 2, 2025, cost U.S. consumers and small businesses a lot of money.

We hear from a chocolate maker, a skate shop owner, and a steel tubing supplier about what tariffs have meant for them over the past 12 months.

Uncertain tariff policy has been “very paralyzing” to some companies over the last year, says UChicago economist Matt Notowidigdo.

Since Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff blitz, other countries have turned to each other to adapt.

Economist Noah Smith said demand for electric vehicles could accelerate battery production and other key technologies.