The war in the Middle East is pushing up inflation in the short term, but longer-term expectations are tamer. That’s relieved pressure on long-term bonds, though that could change if the war escalates.
Two inflation reports drop this week, but neither captures the full picture of what's happening to prices in real time. The gap comes down to a trade-off economists know well: speed versus comprehensiveness.
The New York Fed’s survey shows people expect inflation to hit 3.4% in a year. That’s up from an expectation of 3% in February, before the war in the Middle East started.
The Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index, out on Monday, showed that the prices businesses pay for what they need shot up 7.7 percentage points in March.