Airfares are climbing because of the war in the Middle East

If you’ve got any big summer trips planned — like the kind that includes getting on a long-haul flight — you better book your tickets now. Airfares are climbing as you read this.

The problem is simple: As the price of oil goes up because of the war in the Middle East, so does the price of jet fuel. The way airlines are responding is not quite so simple.

Last time we saw a spike in jet fuel prices like this was at the beginning of the war in Ukraine. Fuel prices and airfare went up, but people paid up anyway.

“Because during that time, there was just such a crazy level of demand for travel. It was during that, you know, revenge travel period,” said Meghna Maharishi, an airline reporter at travel industry news outlet Skift.

Back then, the world was coming out of the pandemic, she said. Consumers were craving to go somewhere — anywhere! — with a bunch of saved-up money burning holes in their pockets. Today, demand for travel is still elevated, but not that elevated.

“So I think those increases are going to probably feel a little bit more painful,” Maharishi said.

That pain is partly exacerbated by higher oil prices, which mean less disposable income for consumers, per independent airline industry analyst Robert Mann.

“Notably, leisure customers have to decide, ‘Well, am I going to pay to light the house and heat the house and fill the fuel tank on the cars, or am I going to go buy airline tickets to see Mickey Mouse?’” he said.

The price hikes will likely target travelers who can afford them, said David Slotnick, contributing aviation editor for the travel site The Points Guy.

“If they see a $10, $20, $30 increase in their tickets and they're already spending $1,200 on a round-trip flight to, say, Japan, that's not something they're necessarily going to notice or be affected by,” Slotnick said.

That also means that airlines that fly to Japan — or elsewhere overseas — are better positioned to weather this storm. As for the domestic and budget airlines? “Their customers are less likely to just absorb that without minding, and that might mean that those airlines need to absorb more of that cost themselves,” said Slotnick.

Airline analysts are reluctant to offer booking advice right now with all of the uncertainty surrounding the war. But Slotnick said he wishes he’d booked his family’s summer trip to Europe weeks ago.