Economists warn that as tax refund season ends and the war in Iran pushes prices higher across more categories, the long-running disconnect between how consumers feel and how they spend may finally start to close.
The war in the Middle East is pushing up inflation in the short term, but longer-term expectations are tamer. That’s relieved pressure on long-term bonds, though that could change if the war escalates.
Markets were hopeful on Friday after Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened to commercial vessels. Now, escalating tensions are bringing expectations back down.
“Businesses say they would have raised wages by roughly an additional percentage point” had it not been for rising health insurance costs, said senior economics contributor Chris Farrell.