inflation expectations

Inflation gets worse when consumers expect it to get worse.

Economists worry that if we expect more inflation we’ll get more inflation.

Consumer expectations for the price of gas and food fell in June, but inflation expectations ticked up.

The consumer price index rose 4.2% in May, driven largely by energy costs that are up about 24% year over year.

Consumers now expect prices to rise 4.8% over the next year, up from 3.4% in February, and businesses and bond markets are signaling similar expectations.

The Treasury bond market is unstable at the moment, telling a story of investors on the edge.

The war in Iran has sent consumer sentiment diving 6%, according to the University of Michigan’s monthly survey.

Right now, consumers expect high inflation. They think, on average, inflation will be 6.5% in a year and 7.2% in five to 10 years, according to the Michigan Survey of Consumers.

Wholesale inflation rose from 2.8% in October to 3.0% in November, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics report. But where inflation is headed is as much about how consumers feel as it is about what wholesalers are paying.

The Federal Reserve of New York releases data on inflation expectations Tuesday.