Crop export prices are up. Are farmers reaping the benefits?

Agriculture export prices just saw their largest 12-month increase since 2022. Federal data showed a 5.7% bump year-over-year in July.

For soybean, wheat, or corn growers, this seems to be good news — including for Ben Brown’s family, which is wrapping up their corn harvest in west central Missouri. Brown is a senior research associate at the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri.

“Harvest came early,” Brown said, “largely due to the dryness in August and July.”

Drought in parts of the Midwest is causing lower crop yields. So, can higher export prices save the day for farm revenues?

“Well, my two favorite words in my English language are ‘it depends,’” said Frayne Olson, professor of agribusiness and applied economics at North Dakota State University.

Olson said high crop prices are welcome news, but it can only help so much if you don’t have a lot of crops to sell. And even if harvest is above average, “it's still not going to be a fantastic year financially,” he said.

After all, fertilizer and fuel costs skyrocketed after the start of the Iran war. And diesel prices are near record highs, just in time for harvest season, when combines, tractors, and big trucks are key. Cortney Cowley, assistant vice president at the Kansas City Fed, said those rising costs create uncertainty for farmers in the year ahead.

“Not knowing where prices might be next month or in a year, I think that just makes planning difficult,” Cowley said.

She said farmers also have to weigh what trade with top buyers, like Mexico and Canada, might look like. Even if crop export prices are higher, tariffs could still hit farm revenues.