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Attacking the supply — The Uncertain Hour season 3, episode 5

Apr 21, 2019

Episodes 1 - 10 of 127

  • A week ago, the $172 billion Greek bailout seemed signed, sealed and delivered. But it turns out there’s still some heavy lifting to do before this Sisyphusian chapter in European financial history is ready to be closed. The Greek saga’s starting to feel like reading a book on a Kindle…you’re never quite sure if you’re close to the end. Barry Ritholtz, author and head of Equity Research at Fusion IQ, is starting to think the never-ending Greek bailout story is designed to inure us to the drama. And the Daily Pulse is up on news that Italian police seized fake U.S. Treasury bonds worth $6 trillion…yep, with a “T.”

  • Today’s teachable moment: stock prices tend to go up when the economy seems more secure. Claims for U.S. jobless benefits unexpectedly fell to a four-year low last week. Experts see that pointing to slightly better times in America. Stephen Wood, the chief market strategist at Russell Investment Group, says it’s now a case of two economies — Europe and the U.S. And the Daily Pulse is down today on this realization: no matter how you spin it, the housing market in America is still broken. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index was at its highest point in 20 years today. So what?

  • Sometimes it seems Wall Street is never satisfied. U.S. factories boosted their output in January, and December’s numbers were revised to reflect the best month of industrial growth since before the big meltdown. Problem is, those numbers still came in below expectations. But the bottom line is still moving in the right direction. We talk to Harvard’s Willy Shih; he says auto sales played a big role in the uptick in output. And the Daily Pulse is up on news that breakfast cereal giant Kellogg announced its purchase of the Pringles for a top-popping $2.695 billion.

  • January retail sales figures are often dragged down by the post-holiday shopping “hangover.” Consumers are shopped out after the holidays, and, even though they offer deep discounts, stores often struggle to lure them back. Madison Riley, a retail strategist at Kurt Salmon, says retailers had a surprisingly good January, especially when you consider headwinds such as unemployment and stagnant wages are still factors. And the Daily Pulse is down today on the fear we may set a new record this summer at the pump. The Department of Energy announced the average price of a gallon of gas rose to $3.51 yesterday. It’s the first time ever gas prices have been that high before March.

  • In a city where political gridlock rules, especially in an election year, consider the President’s budget more of a rough sketch. It’s high on money for schools and infrastructure. It tries to cut the deficit by $4 trillion over ten years. It also favors higher taxes on corporations and the wealthiest of Americans. Karen Shaw Petrou of Federal Financial Analytics in Washington wishes the budget wasn’t so easy for congress to dismiss as election year pandering. “It should be taken seriously,” she tells us. And the Daily Pulse is down on news unemployment among America’s vets is hovering at a stifling 13 percent.

  • While it looks to some like Greece just won’t take its bitter medicine and accept deep austerity measures proposed by its eurozone partners, others say more austerity is essentially political theater. Dimitiri Papadimitriou, the head of the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, says the European Central Bank, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund cannot realistically expect them to be implemented. And the Daily Pulse is down a beat today on news that Americans are less enthusiastic about spending their hard-earned cash than we were a month ago. With gas prices up and wages flat, it’s no surprise that today’s consumer-sentiment index was down.

  • After weeks of brinksmanship, missed deadlines, and late-night negotiations, Greek politicians finally signed off on the long-awaited austerity measures demanded by the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Their reward? A bailout of about $172 billion from the European Central Bank. Douglas Elliot, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, says the markets have seen this deal coming for so long that it had already been priced in. And the Daily Pulse quickened today on news that some justice is coming to the creators of a housing bubble in the U.S. that culminated in a seemingly endless foreclosure fiasco. How much justice? About $25 billion worth.

  • Lisa Shalett, the chief investment officer of Merrill Lynch, says the recent upward tragectory in the markets is due to a mixture of “surprise” and “relief.” Surprise at the resilience of the U.S. economy, and relief that Europe is looking is no longer on the brink of collapse. Many market watchers have been touting equities during this run up, and Shalett is no exception. The Pulse slowed today on news that fewer Americans are quitting their jobs. It turns out “churn,” is actually a sign of a healthy job market.

  • So far, 2012 has been punctuated by a distinct lack of market volatility. Just the opposite of 2011. Erik Ristuben, chief investment strategist at Russell Investments, says the ECB’s long term refinancing operation allows banks to borrow directly from the eurozone’s lender of last resort. According to Ristuben, “that’s been the single biggest factor in reducing volatility.” The Pulse is up sharply today on news that America is edging closer to energy independence. After 20 years of deepening reliance on foreign sources, domestic energy production has surged in just the last half decade to 81 percent of what we consume.

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