President Trump says he wants domestic oil producers to drill more wells and pump more oil. The idea is, more domestic oil supply would mean lower oil prices. But prices are already pretty low right now by recent standards.

On Monday, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, OPEC+, will meet to decide how to respond to the president.

The message from Trump might be to “drill, baby, drill,” but the message the market is sending to domestic producers is entirely different.

“American presidents can state what they want, but that doesn’t necessarily make it happen,” said Greg Priddy, an expert in global energy markets at The Center for the National Interest. 

Priddy said the same rules of supply and demand apply to U.S. producers and to OPEC+.

“American oil companies act on price signals from the market. They don’t pump more because the government tells them to drill more,” he said.

Right now, prices are low because the market has plenty of oil supply, and demand isn’t growing much.

So Richard Schultz expects OPEC+ to hold its production steady. He chairs the energy and petroleum engineering department at the University of North Dakota. 

“I’ll be surprised if next Monday, OPEC does anything more than just tweaks and noise,” he said.

Schultz said OPEC+ leaders know that there’s only so much Trump can do to influence the U.S. market. And time is on their side.

“In my opinion, they’ll do a wait-and-see attitude, doing whatever they need to for stability while the situation in the U.S. plays out,” he said.

Schultz said the question then becomes how Trump will react if domestic producers don’t heed his call to drill, baby, drill. He said the president has already taken aggressive actions and made economic threats during his first week or so in office, so it’s possible he could do the same with the oil industry.

Karl Pettersen said Trump isn’t likely to take any big swings for now. He leads the financial and sustainability advisory firm Pettersen Analytics.

“‘Drill, baby, drill’ is more a gesture to show that we’re not going to vilify oil and gas anymore as opposed to really encouraging production. So it’s not really about finding a new market equilibrium. It’s more about the politics, and that becomes about asserting influence,” said Pettersen.

In other words, Pettersen said, Trump’s message is mostly just that: messaging.

OPEC+ has already indicated the market will support increased production again by April, right as we head into the season of more expensive summer fuel blends and higher demand due to gasoline-intensive road trips.