Housing starts — as in, projects that are breaking ground — were up 16% in December from the month before, a new Census Bureau report shows.

One could argue that the increase was a little surprising, given how costly it is to build homes right now — that’s thanks to expensive construction loans along with shortages of building materials and skilled labor.

Friday’s report raised a few red flags for Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. He said for one, construction usually slows down in December when it’s really cold in parts of the country.

And, when you look at the types of construction projects that broke ground, it was mostly apartments. 

“That’s the most volatile segment in the housing market, particularly when it comes to the construction side,” he said.

In December, apartment construction probably looked higher because in the previous month it was slow, Sweet said. “We’ve had a string of natural disasters, we’ve had hurricanes. And that kind of teed us up for a decent rebound in December,” he said.

But there are some signs that the construction market is actually improving. A survey out this week from the National Association of Home Builders found that builder sentiment rose.

Plus, said Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American, permits for new, single-family homes ticked up a little.

“Existing home inventory is limited. And so, you need more new homes being built to fill in the gap,” she said.

That’s because there’s still plenty of demand for single-family homes, even though prices and mortgage rates are still high.

Kushi said it helps that home builders have a few tricks they can use to encourage buyers.

“They can offer everything from price reductions to mortgage rate buydowns. That can help a potential homebuyer make the numbers work,” she said.

Meanwhile, apartment developers will likely focus on building more affordable rental units.

John Kirk is the founder of The Lightpath Company, an apartment development firm in New Braunfels, Texas. He said developers can build smaller units, use cheaper materials and try to get concessions from local governments.

“Tax abatements, or fee waivers, or some type of agreements, to provide a more affordable product,” he said.

Kirk said apartment construction is still going to be a challenge this year, especially since construction loans are expensive.

But he said as long as builders can make affordable units, construction could pick up.

“Basically, everything points back to the need for housing, and the housing shortage that’s out there. That’s the opportunity,” he said.

That’s why Kirk said he thinks he’ll be a lot busier this year than he was in 2024.