Inflation may be slowing, but when you’re shopping at the grocery store, those prices still sting a bit. Prices for food at home — aka groceries — were up 0.5% month over month in November.

It may be cold comfort, but Ricky Volpe, a professor of agribusiness at California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, said 2024 has been significantly below average for food inflation.

“Food prices will probably end up about 1.2, 1.3% above where they were in 2023. So actually about half that historical norm,” he said.

But he gets it. It doesn’t feel like things are normal or affordable when you go shopping. “People are looking for their food prices to come down,” he said. “And I mean, I should just say that that’s probably not going to happen.”

That’s because at least some of the factors contributing to higher food prices are things like climate change. Droughts impact crop yields and meat prices. Beef was up more than 3% last month.

And when it comes to poultry?

“The avian flu has impacted hens, chickens and then of course eggs. And so we’ve seen those prices be really volatile,” said Nada Sanders, a professor of supply chain management at Northeastern University.

Consumers have been responding to the higher prices by adjusting their diets and definitely cutting back on going out.

“We are seeing a lot less demand for going out to restaurants,” said Tom Bailey, a senior analyst for consumer foods at Rabobank. “Transactions at restaurants are down 6% in the third quarter of this year.”

Even chefs are taking notice.

Jonathan Poyourow is a professor and chef at Johnson & Wales University who teaches students to design meal plans and recipes. A lot of those now include less meat, he said, including some of his own cooking. 

“I was making some Mediterranean food the other night, and instead of using lamb or beef, I ended up just doing roasted chickpeas as the main protein source,” he said.

Throw in a little sumac, lemon zest and tahini, he said, and it was delicious.