Is it possible that the economy has landed softly enough?

Mar 11, 2024
Fed Chairman Powell told a congressional committee not to expect a victory lap when and if the Fed decides it has finally beaten inflation.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks before a House Financial Services Committee hearing on monetary policy on March 6.
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When will the Fed cut rates? Senators are likely to put Jay Powell on the spot when he testifies

Mar 7, 2024
He says there's likely to be a rate cut this year, but he won't say when.
Above, Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.
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Business economists expect a soft landing in 2024

Feb 26, 2024
The National Association for Business Economics' latest forecast predicts higher economic growth and lower unemployment.
“Over the past quarters, the prospects for a recession seem to get smaller, prospects for a soft landing larger," said Mervin Jebaraj at the University of Arkansas.
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2024 economic forecasts bring optimism and uncertainty

Jan 3, 2024
Fairly low unemployment, gradually slowing inflation and continued economic growth are all positive signals. But there are risks too.
“Rather than cautiously optimistic, I’d say we’re optimistically cautious,” said Vanguard's Andrew Patterson of 2024's economic outlook.
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Will high yields on the 10-year T-note jeopardize the "soft landing"?

Oct 4, 2023
The yield hit a 16-year record Tuesday. Could that mean trouble for the Federal Reserve's effort to cool inflation and prevent a recession?
It has long been said that if you want to know where the economy is headed, look at the bond market. Could the bond market be wrong this time?
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Job openings fell in July in a promising sign for soft landing

Aug 29, 2023
Federal data also shows fewer people quit last month, bringing rates back in line with pre-pandemic levels.
Job openings decreased in July and were revised down for June.
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What comes after a soft landing?

Aug 16, 2023
There are only so many options. Ideally, they don't include a boom or a bust.
If the Federal Reserve tames inflation and avoids a recession, it will want to maintain the status quo — without a boom or a bust.
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For public good, not for profit.

Is the Fed actually going to pull off a "soft landing"?

Jun 14, 2023
If the Fed can tamp down inflation without sparking a recession, it would be only the second time in history in U.S. history.
Hold the applause for Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell — there's more work to do before the economy can make a soft landing.
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What does the decline in corporate profits say about the economy?

May 25, 2023
Profits fell for the second quarter in a row, partly due to Fed rate hikes. Whether it’s a good thing depends on your role in the economy.
Profits are falling, but the stock market is "not freaked out," says Bruce Sacerdote of Dartmouth.
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Job openings fall in a possible sign of the elusive "soft landing"

Apr 4, 2023
Fewer job openings in normal times might be not great news, but right now, it is — cautiously speaking — a good sign. 
Workers moving into jobs in hotels and restaurants could be a sign that the economy is rebalancing.
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