🎁'Tis the season to support public service journalism Donate Now

Leading economic indicators stubbornly point to a recession. It still hasn't arrived.

Aug 17, 2023
So are the indicators wrong, or have we just not waited long enough?
“If this recession happens, it will be the most predicted recession — like, ever,” said former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm.
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

What's the best way to predict where the economy is headed?

Jul 20, 2023
Some question the predictive powers of the The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, a past predictor of recessions.
While investors may be closely watching The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, economists caution it may not be as predictive as it once was.
Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images

Economic indicators can't tell us the economy's whole story

Jun 23, 2023
The manufacturing sector is shrinking, according to a report. But that doesn’t account for people’s spending or the tight labor market.
"If you move beyond the vibes and look at the hard data, we’re creating jobs at a gangbusters pace, unemployment is at a 50-year low," says Justin Wolfers of the University of Michigan. "This ain’t a recession, man."
Getty Images

How Google searches are leading economic indicators

Jan 30, 2012
Behavioral economist Sendhil Mullainathan discusses how data from your online searches can help not just advertisers, but also economists in researching the state of the economy.