For well over a year, the interest paid by long-term Treasury bonds has been lower than that of shorter-term debt. But a recession hasn’t happened yet.

The yield for a two-year note is roughly a whole percentage point higher than the yield on the 10-year Treasury right now. And that often precedes a recession.

This time around, it may not be telling us that a recession’s on the way.

It’s a market phenomenon that shows investors want more for short-term government bonds than they do for long-term bonds.

Historically, an inverted yield curve has spelled recession.