The Bureau of Labor Statistics usually collects data in real time. So it may not be able to capture October prices or jobs data that was missed during the shutdown.

Measuring inflation without government data is difficult right now, but there other indicators of where prices are and where they are headed.

New data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows as prices go up, people are continuing to spend more money than they earn and are also saving less.

The price of oranges, for example, has increased by 26% since 2019 due to rising labor costs, lingering supply chain issues, and climate change. 

They’re backward-looking indicators, but economists can’t know where we are unless they know where we’ve been.

There are extenuating circumstances, namely the rush to import goods before tariffs hit.

The PCE index could come in at the central bank’s much-vaunted target of 2% inflation.

The CPI shows consistently higher inflation than the PCE because it emphasizes different prices. Their gap has been wider than usual.

One reason? Savings rates are coming down from a high early in the pandemic, when many Americans were able to hold on to extra cash.

CPI and PCE can both seem to be out of step with consumers’ experience.