The view from Cuba after the ousting of Maduro

Following the president’s intervention in Venezuela, the Trump administration is escalating threats against several sovereign nations. We turned our attention to Cuba — a long-time ally of Venezuela.

Cuba is now set to lose access to one of its main suppliers of oil, adding pressure to its increasing energy shortage and an already struggling economy. To understand the changing dynamics, “Marketplace Morning Report” host David Brancaccio spoke with Will Grant, the BBC's Mexico, Central America, and Cuba correspondent. The following is an edited transcript of their conversation.

David Brancaccio: You were just in Cuba on a reporting assignment. I mean — broad brush — not enough energy to meet needs. Can you see it play out?

Will Grant: Yeah, you can. You can see it play out in real time. I mean, the rolling blackouts in Havana alone. And then add on top of that, in the wake of the removal of Nicolás Maduro from power — the forced removal — the outlook looks even bleaker for Cubans, because they are contemplating the very real possibility of the tap of Venezuelan crude being switched off. And that Venezuelan crude has, to all intents and purposes, propped up the Cuban revolution for the past two and a half decades.

Brancaccio: Did you see actual effects of the cutoff of Venezuela's oil?

Grant: Well, I don't think we're there yet on that. But let me give you a little picture. There was a sort of anti-U.S. imperialism march that went past the U.S. embassy in Havana, led by the President. And as that was happening, we were getting information on our phone that the now interim president [of Venezuela], Delcy Rodríguez, was meeting with the head of the CIA in Caracas. And of course, I showed this information to a Cuban official, and he sort of went gray, because it does give the indication — the fear, I think, within the Cuban government, is that it does signal a much greater willingness to work with the Trump administration and, therefore, sort of jettison the close relationship with Havana.

Brancaccio: Mexico is a big oil producer and seems poised to send some of its oil toward Cuba.

Grant: Correct. And I mean, I think most estimates suggest that Venezuela has remained the main supplier of oil to Cuba, but there's no doubt that Mexico is an important partner. Now, would they step in and replace Venezuela entirely? Well, I think then we need to look at Claudia Sheinbaum’s list of priorities. I think that there will be significant pressure put on her government by the Trump administration to not replace Venezuela, to not replace Nicolás Maduro’s relationship with Cuba.

Brancaccio: Now, President Trump has urged Cuba to “make a deal before it's too late.” I mean, a deal acceptable to the U.S. administration would involve structural political change in Cuba.

Grant: Absolutely, and I can't imagine that any kind of negotiation would be acceptable to the White House or to Marco Rubio that didn't involve, as you say, basically, root and branch reform. And quite clearly, that isn't acceptable to the Cuban government. So, it currently looks like yet another moment of political conflict, if not spilling over into actual conflict for the time being.