Shipments of solar panels in the U.S. reached a record high last year, up 10% from 2021, according to a new analysis from the Energy Information Administration.

Shipments of solar panels and solar capacity have been rising pretty steadily since 2010. In that time, the cost of panels has also been dropping.

For the most part, the U.S. is not on track to reach its climate goals. To actually cut greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050, “we need to really be smashing record deployment rates every year for the next decade and beyond for renewable energy,” said Jesse Jenkins at Princeton University.

Which we’re not. But there may be one exception. “Solar looks on track to do that,” Jenkins said. “So that’s encouraging.”

Solar is projected to grow even more in the next couple of years than the last, Jenkins said — in large part because of the Inflation Reduction Act.

“And the long-term extension of tax credits that make solar power more affordable for households and businesses and utilities,” he added.

The law also includes major incentives for companies to manufacture solar panels and other components domestically. Currently, around 90% of panels come from abroad.

“But that is beginning to change,” said Abigail Ross Hopper, president and CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association. “I think over the next three to five years, we’re going to see even more domestic solar production. We see the announcements, we see the groundbreakings, we’ve even been to a few ribbon cuttings.”

Even before all this new investment, the cost of solar panels had come way down, Daniel Cohan at Rice University in Houston pointed out.

“The prices are down more than 85% over the past 12 years or so,” Cohan said. “So that’s made solar the cheapest way to add new electricity to the grid.”

But linking solar projects to the grid is still a challenge, he said. “Here in Texas, for example, we have well over 100 gigawatts worth of projects waiting their turn to be connected to the grid.”

Nationally, there are almost 1,000 gigawatts waiting to be connected. To put that in context: The total amount of solar capacity added to the grid last year was just shy of 11 gigawatts.