At the G20 meeting of world leaders this week, President Trump and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are sure to talk about trade. Trump has been outspoken — on Twitter, at least — about the U.S. needing to shrink the “massive” trade deficit it has with Germany. The Commerce Department says the U.S. trade deficit did indeed shrink in May, with exports rising to a two-year high. One of the factors in that is a weak U.S. dollar, another economic fact President Trump finds favorable. But for either of those — a shrinking trade deficit or a weak dollar — to continue too far would mean a huge economic shift.

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