UPS is warning that its earnings will fall short for the fourth quarter of last year, mostly because the company overcompensated for the shipping woes of 2013, when it delivered a surge of last-minute packages after Christmas.

For 2014, it hired more workers and invested in more equipment than was needed to handle what turned out to be an easier Christmas shipping season. E-commerce is a bigger part of UPS’ business now, and it is also hard to forecast. Will cost-cutting hurt performance next year?

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