Earlier this week, the New York Federal Reserve released its annual housing survey, which asks people how much they think housing costs will rise in the future.
People told the New York Fed that they expect rents to rise faster than home prices over the next five years. However, recent data has shown that rent inflation has been slowing down.
This time last year, rents were up over 15% compared to the year before. But Jay Parsons, chief economist at the real estate analytics company RealPage, says rents have only grown 4.5% in the time since.
“So rent growth for the new lease renters is about a third of what it was the same time last year,” he said.
Parsons said a big reason for the slowdown is that apartment construction is booming. Meanwhile, people haven’t moved around as much recently, according to Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American.
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“In times of uncertainty, fewer households form, so that’s less demand for renting, and the two combined have slowed the pace of rent growth for new renters,” he said.
But existing renters aren’t likely to notice if they’re locked into a long-term lease, said RealPage’s Jay Parsons.
“They see rents once a year, time of renewal, or signing a new lease,” Parsons said. “And so their opinion is oftentimes shaped by what happened in their most recent experience, which could have been many months ago.”
That means people could notice a slowdown in rent inflation when their leases expire and as more new apartments become available.