Latino employment high but outlook could be shaky
Latino employment high but outlook could be shaky
Even with signs of an economic slowdown flashing, the labor market in the U.S. is still very tight. Latino workers in particular have reaped the benefits. Last month their unemployment rate was 3.8% – the lowest it’s been on record.
But what will happen to Latino employment if those warning signs turn into a real downturn?
When the economy starts to take a turn for the worse, the Latino unemployment rate usually spikes higher and faster than the national average.
That’s partly because Latinos disproportionately work in industries more vulnerable to business cycle downturns, said economist Jay Bryson at Wells Fargo.
“Latinos make up about 18% to 19% of the workforce, they make up 33% of the employment base in the construction industry,” he said. “And as we’re seeing right now … homebuilding is really starting to weaken.”
New home construction is down 7.7% from last year.
Carmen Sanchez Cumming at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth said the low unemployment rate we’re seeing amongst Latinos right now may be a little deceptive, because it doesn’t measure those who have left the labor force entirely.
“Women in particular had way disproportionate care responsibilities. They had to stay home for school disruptions, medical disruptions, all of it,” she said.
Still, there are reasons to think Latino workers may fare better this time around than in previous downturns.
While construction is still a major source of Latino employment, it’s not as important as it used to be, said Mark Hugo Lopez, an economist with the Pew Research Center
“Back before the Great Recession, construction was the single largest sector of employment for Latino workers,” he said. “Today it’s actually white collar jobs and office workers who are the single largest group.”
Lopez said that’s because a younger cohort of U.S.-born Latinos with college degrees have entered the job market.
“We have more of a U.S.-born. U.S.-educated workforce that is different from say the more immigrant-focused workforce of the ’90s or early 2000s.”
There’s a downside to that too, though. The median age for Latinos in the U.S is about nine years younger than the rest of the population – and younger workers are often more likely to be laid off than those with more seniority.
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