The mortgage business right now is even slower than 2008
The mortgage business right now is even slower than 2008
The interest rate on the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has more than doubled since the start of the year, more or less tracking the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking campaign.
With the housing market slowing down, “Marketplace” host Kai Ryssdal checked in with Vivian Gueler, chief financial officer at Pacific Trust Group, a mortgage lender in Los Angeles. The following is an edited transcript of their conversation.
Kai Ryssdal: OK, so we had you on in April, when the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average was 5.1ish%. And you said then that business for you had “come to a screeching halt.” And one can only wonder what life is like now in the mortgage business with rates at like almost 7%.
Vivian Gueler: Oh, Kai. Yeah, if you can believe it, it’s actually gotten worse. It’s pretty quiet right now. We’re seeing a little bit of activity with, like, previous first-time buyers who were bidding on multiple homes last year, and they’re just starting to dip their toes back in. But overall, it’s really quiet.
Ryssdal: Are you surprised at all that housing prices are not coming down as rates have gone up?
Gueler: I’m surprised they’re not coming down extensively, but they’re coming down a little bit. Right now, we’re starting to see price cuts across the board at all price points. But yeah, relative to the interest rate, I would have thought that they’d come down even further at this point. Especially with the stock market also where it’s at. That’s not helping, but hasn’t really affected the housing prices as much as I would have thought it would have.
Ryssdal: Yeah. When you talk to your colleagues, either in, you know, sort of the real estate business writ large or specifically in mortgage, what’s the mood?
Gueler: It’s pretty doom and gloom. I mean, there’s been another huge wholesale lender, Finance of America, that announced closure this week. That, coupled with a couple of other biggies, we’re starting to see again more layoffs, you know, with lenders across the board. So it’s not pretty.
Ryssdal: It’s important to note here, it’s not like nobody’s buying houses. I mean, you do have a little bit of business going on.
Gueler: Yeah, there’s still activity. And like I said, there’s some first-time buyers coming back around. They were priced out last year. They’re able to negotiate, they’re getting seller credits to buy homes. So there’s still stuff going on. And you know, a lot of investors having to think quick and, you know, refinance the properties that aren’t selling. There’s still activity, it’s just very quiet.
Ryssdal: What’s sort of the, the risk appetite, right? I mean, you’re making riskier loans, or are you still trying to be safe? What are you doing?
Gueler: Everyone’s doing adjustable-rate mortgages at the higher price point because the rates are much lower. Smaller price points that are still doing 30-year fixed, but at a higher price point, people are taking that risk. And we’re seeing people jump in too that know that next year, they’re going to refinance in about a year or so.
Ryssdal: OK. So this is none of my business, but when you get up in the morning, and you have a cup of coffee and brush your teeth and you work out or do whatever you do, then do you, like, go to the office? Or do you jump on the phone? I mean, what do you do in an environment where it’s so slow?
Gueler: Well, it’s funny you ask because I work out a little longer. And I take my time to get here. But you know, on one level, yes, it’s nice to have the time. But you know, you do worry. And you think about, “Is there a future in this for me?” But it goes up and down, and things will get better. That’s just the nature of the market, really. You have to save your beans when you have them.
Ryssdal: Yes you do, you just got to save your beans. How long you been doing this? Twenty-something years, right?
Gueler: Over 20 years, yeah.
Ryssdal: OK. So do a compare and contrast between 2008 and the financial crisis and today.
Gueler: Definitely slower right now than 2008. In 2008, we saw housing prices come down. So there was activity then because people were actually going back into the market and buying. You know, there were fire sales. But right now, you’ve got high interest rates, you still have relatively high prices and you have a stock market that’s, you know, tanked. So not good.
Ryssdal: All right, so you’re the expert on this call about real estate and mortgages. How long till things pick up again for you?
Gueler: I would say maybe end of second quarter 2023. The [Federal] Reserve has said that they were going to increase rates through then, maybe second quarter. And they’re doing what they said they were going to do, so we kind of have to believe them.
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