The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) report for October is expected to rebound from a 0.2 percent decline the previous month. That drop—the first in a year—resulted in part from weak employment and residential construction activity tied to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, according to the Conference Board. (LEI is compiled from ten economic indicators—including first-time unemployment claims, factory orders, building permits, stock prices and interest-rate spreads.)
“With hurricanes, the capital markets tend to give a little bit of a ‘hall-pass’ for events like that,” said Eric Freedman at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis, Minnesota. He said that going forward, the economy looks much better, partly because the U.S.’s major trading partners are on a roll.
“For the first time since the financial crisis in ’08-’09, we’ve actually seen synchronized global recovery really kick in — in Japan, Europe, China, the U.S., Canada, and Latin America,” he said.
In the U.S., job creation, and consumer and business confidence have been “rather elevated,” said Chris Christopher at IHS Markit. And he said higher-income Americans have seen their wealth rise strongly, along with equity markets.
“Due to a stronger stock market,” he said, “luxury sales might do pretty well.” This year, IHS Markit predicts that holiday retail sales will rise 4.2 percent over 2016.
Tax changes that Republicans in Congress are trying to pass before year’s end—including lower taxes on businesses—could increase economic growth modestly next year, said Christopher.
And that, in fact, has been the hope of middle-market business owners surveyed by consulting firm RSM over the past year, since the November 2016 election, said RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas.
“They’ve had a general expectation — even an outsize expectation — of rising revenues over the horizon,” said Brusuelas. “They wanted to see health care reform, tax reform, and they also wanted to see infrastructure spending.”
|For homeowners, Republican tax proposals could change the equation around mortgages, property taxes|
|U.S. hiring jumps after hurricanes as employers add 261,000|
If you’re a member of your local public radio station, we thank you — because your support helps those stations keep programs like Marketplace on the air. But for Marketplace to continue to grow, we need additional investment from those who care most about what we do: superfans like you.
Your donation — as little as $5 — helps us create more content that matters to you and your community, and to reach more people where they are – whether that’s radio, podcasts or online.
When you contribute directly to Marketplace, you become a partner in that mission: someone who understands that when we all get smarter, everybody wins.
make public service
Thank you for doing your part!