Today’s report of a tepid rise in first-quarter gross domestic product, by 0.7 percent, comes with an asterisk: There appears to be a recurrent pattern of low growth in first-quarter GDP going back years. Some economists argue it goes back decades. That’s thanks to something economists call “residual seasonality” — recurrent seasonal patterns in the GDP data that are not already accounted for by seasonal adjustments applied by government economists. So is this initial first-quarter GDP report really a good way to predict where the economy is headed?
Click the audio player above to hear the full story.
Marketplace is on a mission.
We believe Main Street matters as much as Wall Street, economic news is made relevant and real through human stories, and a touch of humor helps enliven topics you might typically find…well, dull.
Through the signature style that only Marketplace can deliver, we’re on a mission to raise the economic intelligence of the country—but we don’t do it alone. We count on listeners and readers like you to keep this public service free and accessible to all. Will you become a partner in our mission today?