For years, Americans expected an annual raise of anywhere from 2.5 to 3 percent. The recession brought that number down to 0.2 percent by June 2009, and inflation wiped out most wage gains that have occurred since. But recently, people have become more optimistic.
In December, Americans said they expect a raise of about 1.7 percent – a smidge above inflation, which seems to be running at around 1.3 percent.
Will we actually get that raise? Hard to say.
In December, average hourly wages jumped a fraction, around 0.4%. A promising figure, but one month of data does not make a trend. Twenty states and the District of Columbia have all raised the minimum wage, which will boost incomes at the bottom end of the spectrum.
For the rest of wage earners, it’s a question of how much slack there is in the labor market and the economy. If the unemployment rate continues to fall, workers may have the confidence to push for pay increases without having to worry about the line of people outside willing to work for less.