Personal income in August fell 0.1 percent — the first drop since October 2009 — as the wobbly economic recovery continues. Despite the decrease, spending rose by 0.2 percent, following a 0.7 percent gain in July and a 0.2 percent drop during June.
The headline is disheartening, but it misses a larger point: income growth in the U.S. has been slowing for quite some time. According to the Wall Street Journal, real disposable income “averaged 4.5 percent annual growth in the 1960’s, 3.7 percent in the 1970’s, about 3 percent in the ’80’s and ’90’s and only 2.5 percent last decade.” This year income growth is just over 1 percent, as the economy has stalled out.
A grim picture, but the historic context provides clues as to how consumers ended up with piles of debt and reduced means to pay down that debt. As income growth slowed, the housing and credit bubble of the last decade allowed many Americans to borrow to supplement their stagnating wages. (Please hold back your judgment on this statement-just trying to establish a fact pattern.) All of that consumer spending-on-steroids accounted for a good portion of the dot-com bust recovery. But the price was steep: in the post-Great Recession years, consumers are using whatever income they have to reduce debt and beef-up savings.
As consumers take a rational approach to their own financial lives, it creates vicious cycle: less spending is a drag on overall growth, which keeps a lid on job creation and income growth, which in turn, makes consumers cautious and focused on paying-down debt and saving. Unfortunately, as personal incomes drop, many are forced to dip into their savings. In August, the saving rate fell to 4.5 percent, the lowest level since December 2009.
The sobering data reinforces what we all know: the recovery feels almost as bad as the bust itself. Not a great way to start the fourth quarter, but at least we have post-season baseball as a much-needed diversion.