Recovery or recession: it’s like riding a bike
STEVE CHIOTAKIS: So while governments try and figure out what to do in the short-term. A new survey asked
economists how they’re feeling about the long-term prospects. The answer? Not so great. The report is out from the Wall Street Journal today, and it shows economists think there’s a 33 percent chance we’re headed back into recession in the next year. Of course, optimists would say there’s still a better than average chance the economy will continue on the path to growth — but the news certainly isn’t great.
Phillip Izzo is a reporter with the Wall Street Journal and he’s with us now from New York. Good morning.
PHILLIP IZZO: Morning.
CHIOTAKIS: I want to talk about the survey and economists feeling much less optimistic about the future than even last month. What did they have to say?
IZZO: Yeah, there was a big drop in their forecast for growth for the rest of the year into next year, and it caused them to raise their odds to recession over the next 12 months. They see about a one in three chance we’ll have another recession in the next year.
CHIOTAKIS: One in three chance, I mean, had it been that high before?
IZZO: No, it was actually much lower. It was about 17 percent just last month. A big jump of about 10 percentage points like this is unusual. There was a lot of bad numbers that we saw earlier this month. The GDP numbers that show the whole level of growth were revised much lower. And it looked like the economy grew at less than a one percent rate, which is extremely slow. And then we saw a lot of other anecdotal bad news. We’ve seen these swings in the stock market which are affecting consumer sentiment. There was a lot of issues with the debt debate, the Federal Reserve, and also raised concerns about growth over the course of the year. The problem is we’re growing so slow, it’s sort of like riding a bike. When you ride a bike so slow, you can’t keep enough speed to stay upright — you fall down.
CHIOTAKIS: So what does it take to stay on the bike?
IZZO: We’re hoping that jobs pick up. That’s really the main, big concern. Employers just aren’t hiring. There’s a lot of employers who seem to be sitting on a pile of cash, but they’re sitting on the sidelines as far as bringing new people on. If we see a pickup over the course of a year, that would really be the biggest help.
CHIOTAKIS: Phillip Izzo, reporter with the Wall Street Journal. Phillip, thanks.
IZZO: Thanks for having me.
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