Marketplace Scratch Pad

Whew… it’s finally over?

Scott Jagow Sep 15, 2009

Today, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke declared the recession “very likely over at this point.” Does it feel that way to you? Yeah, I didn’t think so.

Bernanke was being technical, as in, technically all the alcohol has left your system, but you still have a monster headache and you’re prone on the couch, mumbling that you’ll never drink again. Bernanke put it in less colorful language. From The Hill:

“[If] we do, in fact, see moderate growth, but not growth much more than the underlying potential growth rate, then, unfortunately, unemployment will be slow — slow to come down. It will come down, but it may take some time,” Bernanke said…

… it’s still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time, as many people will still find that their job security and their employment status is not what they wish it was.”

Wait for it… the jobless recovery.

One way not to fall into the jobless category of the jobless recovery is to start your own business. From USA Today:

In this recession, starting a business from scratch or buying a franchise has been the way out for many. Of job seekers who gained employment in the second quarter of 2009, nearly one in 10 — 8.7% — did so by launching their own businesses, according to outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas’ quarterly Job Market Index. That start-up pace is up from 6.4% in the first quarter and is twice the rate reported in Challenger’s 2008 second-quarter update…

It’s difficult to pinpoint any definitive long-term trends about small businesses leading the country out of recessions, but statistics show that for firms with no paid employees — “non-employer” firms — their creation rate goes up in a downturn, says Brian Headd, an Office of Advocacy economist.

The do-it-yourself recovery.

I like the sound of that better, although, it’s clearly an uphill battle. Analyst Meredith Whitney on CNBC:

“Where do the jobs come from?” she said. “Surely if this country becomes massively protectionist we’ll build up manufacturing capability. Is that necessarily a good thing? No. There’s not a lot of free capital for small business innovation–small business, period–and that’s half the workforce.”

How about you? Are you having your own recovery or are you still deep in a personal recession?

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