Let’s say two people are constantly giving you advice. One of them is extremely confident every time but usually turns out to be wrong. The other is much less confident-sounding but usually winds up being right. Who do you listen to? A new study says overwhelmingly, people choose confidence first.
Ever wondered why the pundits who failed to predict the current economic crisis are still being paid for their opinions? It’s a consequence of the way human psychology works in a free market, according to a study of how people’s self-confidence affects the way others respond to their advice.
The research, by Don Moore of Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, shows that we prefer advice from a confident source, even to the point that we are willing to forgive a poor track record. Moore argues that in competitive situations, this can drive those offering advice to increasingly exaggerate how sure they are.
I think I’ve seen that show on one of the cable channels. Or maybe it was a Treasury Department press conference. I can’t recall.
Stories You Might Like
We’re here to help you navigate this changed world and economy.
Our mission at Marketplace is to raise the economic intelligence of the country. It’s a tough task, but it’s never been more important.
In the past year, we’ve seen record unemployment, stimulus bills, and reddit users influencing the stock market. Marketplace helps you understand it all, will fact-based, approachable, and unbiased reporting.
