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My Two Cents

Prediction markets, one last time

Chris Farrell Nov 3, 2008

The Iowa electronic futures market gives Obama a 91% chance of winning the presidency tomorrow. Intrade is at 90.5%.

Since I live in Minnesota I’ve been following the futures market in the Sen. Coleman/ Al Franken Senate race. It has really tightened up. Iowa gives a slight nod to Franken at 53%. Intrade gives him a 57% chance.

Coleman had domianted in the betting until October when Franken made a dramatic leap all the way up to 80% odds of winning. But the odds drew even, however, especially last week.

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