My Two Cents

Presidential prediction markets

Chris Farrell Oct 6, 2008

I’m listening to a discussion about the presidential election, and the commentators are dwelling on the polls..

Curious, I pulled up the Iowa electronic presidential futures market. The results took me by surprise. The polls show that Obama has taken a lead with all the economy’s troubles. But the bettors in the futures market are giving Obama a 75% chance of winning in November.

Dublin-based Intrade has been consistently less positive on Obama’s chances than Iowa’s market, but even it now gives him a 68% chance of winning.

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