Global markets prepare for recession

Marketplace Staff Jan 16, 2008
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Global markets prepare for recession

Marketplace Staff Jan 16, 2008
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TEXT OF INTERVIEW

Doug Krizner: Global stock markets are telling us the U.S. is headed for recession — if we’re not already in one.

Today, steep losses in Asia and Europe after yesterday’s plunge on Wall Street. Overnight in Japan, the Nikkei lost 3 percent, Hong Kong was down 5 percent.

Intel added fuel to the fire late yesterday — the leading chip maker will earn less in the coming months.

Let’s bring in Nick Haysel of the Times of London:


Krizner: Nick, what is trading like in the U.K. this morning?

Nick Haysel: It’s pretty bad. The FTSE is now down 8 percent since the start of the year and the thing about the FTSE last year was it had such a high weighting in oil stocks and in mining stocks that although some of the old consumer stocks — the retailers, the hotel operators, the restaurant operators — have done very badly, because the miners held up well, that hasn’t hurt us. But now, even the miners aren’t coming to the index’s aid, so hence we’re coming off and partly that is because those sort of stocks are sensitive to a U.S. recession.

Krizner: It used to be that many were arguing in favor of a global growth story, which is to say that even if the U.S. were to slow down, economies in China, Russia, India, Brazil could kind of make up the difference. Isn’t that the case?

Haysel: Ah, the old decoupling argument, as it’s been called. Certainly, having any exposure to those markets has been the flavor over the last year or so and you’ve certainly seen it with those stocks here in London that have emerging market exposure. But at the same time, it’s still quite hard to believe that should the U.S. enter a recessoin, the old laws would not apply.

Krizner: Nick Haysel is a business writer for the Times of London. Nick, thanks so much for speaking with us.

Haysel: Many thanks.

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