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A surprise reaction to Federal Reserve monetary stimulus

A pedestrian passes before a share prices board in Tokyo on September 5, 2011.

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Steve Chiotakis: Why all the sudden pessimism? In the Fed's analysis, it said the economy stinks, yeah. Slow growth? Check. The abysmal housing market here in the U.S.? Check. No jobs? Check.

But what about the Fed's response? Why aren't markets bouncing back with news that the Fed
is using tools not seen since the 1960s to reignite the recovery?

The BBC's Andrew Walker is with us from London with the latest on that. Hi Andrew.

Andrew Walker: Hi there, Steve.

Chiotakis: Why the big global reaction to the Fed's decision?

Walker: It is slightly curious in some ways, because of course what the Fed is doing is taking action to stimulate the rapidly lagging economy recovery. So in some circumstances, the markets might well be expected to take that positively. This time, however, I think partly they're focused on the Fed's negative comments -- the warning about significant downside risks. Also, I think there is an increasing feeling that, although central bank action is probably -- at the very least -- harmless, there's an awful concern brewing, I think, that maybe they are beginning to run out of effective tools. And so, the Fed's action, I think, is just made markets focus on that downside. There's been a few other little bits of bad news -- particularly some manufacturing data out of China -- but I think it's the Fed, and implications that the markets see from the statement, that is really focusing their minds.

Chiotakis: Andrew, we already knew that the economy isn't doing very well, right?

Walker: Yeah, abosultely. You might well say, "Why on earth did the markets need the Fed to tell them that there are significant downside risks?" That they should have worked that out already -- and I think they did. But we're into this kind of environment where an awful lot is dependent on sentiment -- perhaps more than is usually the case. And so, you do sometimes get markets responding in a perhaps rather unexpected way. And I think that's what we've had this time.

Chiotakis: What about other central banks, Andrew, around the world -- will they react similarly to the Fed? Will more stimulus be put into the global economy?

Walker: I think probably yes. We've already had an indication a few hours before the Fed's latest move from the Bank of England that it's very seriously considering doing something. The European Central Bank is a little bit further behind on this kind of issue, because it has actually been raising interest rates in the last few months. But the odds, I think, must be increasing very rapidly that the European Central Bank will reverse those moves before very long.

Chiotakis: The BBC's Andrew Walker in London. Andrew, thank you.

Walker: My pleasure, Steve.

Sam Greenback's picture
Sam Greenback - Sep 23, 2011

The markets are freaking because they see the US printing its way out of debt. They know that the debt holders are going to be paid off in inflated (=cheaper) dollars. There's nowhere else to go, but they're not happy about it.

Bobo LaBobo's picture
Bobo LaBobo - Sep 22, 2011

No one wants to hear it, but it's the same problem we had in 2008 and 2009. Nothing has changed much, no one wants to talk about it either. it's still the same problem, HOUSING !! In CA approx. 30 % of home owners with a mortgage owe about 100K more than they can sell for, sorry you just cannot have an economic recovery in conditions like that. You cannot make up 20% of the economy with clean energy Jobs although it does make for a nice feel good speech. And no there is not an oversupply of homes at least not in SoCal, In this case you have few choices 1) Find a magical economy Job creator (not easy) 2) Inflate (this is what we typically do but it seems that it is something we have politically made impossible). 3) wait maybe another 5 to 15 years for home owners to pay down the debt or die. Well enjoy !! It a chicken and egg thing, you can create enough Job's with out housing, you need current home owner to be able to move but they are under water, and you cannot create wage inflation without Job's Yes it������¢���¯���¿���½���¯���¿���½s in immobility as well but it������¢���¯���¿���½���¯���¿���½s much much more than that, it������¢���¯���¿���½���¯���¿���½s also all the people who are not underwater but refuse to take a loss so they cannot/will not upgrade, downgrade relocate or even buy new stuff. There is a very large sociological factor no one talks about either, you cannot have an economic recovery when 30 % loan owners owe 90K more than current value and probably another 30% paid 90K more, and no short sale is not going to cure that. Also the Cities have based their current revenue expectations on 2005, and they are going to be in constant funds shortage until they address that, AND NOONE DEFINITELY WANTS TO TALK ABOUT THAT !!!. To focus of Job������¢���¯���¿���½���¯���¿���½s you need to focus on the economy , and to focus on the economy you have to focus on the home owner Debt, And trust me NO ONE WANTS TO DO THAT OK so who is going to fix the circle ?