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Keep complaining about the economy
Commentator Will Wilkinson
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TEXT OF COMMENTARY
Scott Jagow: As much bad economic news as I have to give out every morning, we are not in a recession. At least not by one common definition -- that's two straight quarters of negative GDP. The economy grew at a rate of almost a percent last quarter. But commentator Will Wilkinson says don't let that stop you from complaining.
Will Wilkinson: Come on! Will we ever get a recession? Sure, gas and food prices are inspiring new expeditions into couch cushions across the nation. But without full-on recession, without a declaration that the economy's officially hosed, it seems like we have to accept that it's not that bad.
With a real recession, we could blame somebody -- President Bush, the Federal Reserve, the Democratic Congress, greedy investment bankers -- take your pick! And the upside of pain is complaining about it; a bona fide recession is a license to let slip the dogs of kvetch. But the economy keeps stumbling along like a drunk who never quite falls down. If it's going to be so lousy anyway, you almost want to say: "Just fall, damn it."
Economic growth is neither constant nor predictable. It speeds up and it slows down, sometimes so much the economy starts to shrink -- the dreaded recession.
According to the standard definition, a recession is two consecutive quarters of contraction. But, somewhat mysteriously to economists, fluctuations in the business cycle have moderated over the past 25 years -- as if the economy went on lithium in the early 80's. Recessions are less common, downturns less severe, and that pattern seems to be holding. Which is to say, it really isn't that bad.
Unemployment is up . . . to 5 percent, which used to be considered really, really low. The inflation rate, including energy and food, is up to almost 4 percent. But in 1981, the last time gas was anywhere near this expensive in real terms, inflation was over 11 percent. Despite everything, the American economy appears annoyingly resilient.
But I say we complain anyway, recession or no recession. We didn't used to whine about spotty cell phone coverage, but now we do. And that's progress. When things keep getting better, it takes less to warrant complaint. So what if the economy's still pretty good? This is America! That's not good enough.
Jagow: Will Wilkinson is a research fellow at the Cato Institute.
The disconnect between the above replies and what Mr. Wilkinson said are screaming 'Got reading comprehension?':
'This is drivel.' -- ah, succinct analysis.
'Cheerleader' -- the 'cheerleader' said: "the economy keeps stumbling along like a drunk...", "If it's going to be so lousy...", "I say we complain anyway..."
As Inigo Montoya would say, I don't think this word 'cheerleader' means what you think it means. And such basically stupid responses force the reader to wonder: Are you responding to something besides the actual substantive claims he made? Apparently, the fact he's from Cato? Surely not all people with your antipathy display only empty hostility, surely you misrepresent your side as being without anything meaningful and intelligent to say.
So let's focus on substance. Mr. Wilkinson said, "...somewhat mysteriously to economists, fluctuations in the business cycle have moderated over the past 25 years -- as if the economy went on lithium in the early 80's." THAT is a fascinating substantive claim! If you're going to snipe, this might be a legitimate target.
He also says, I paraphrase: Unemployment up to 5%; inflation ~4% including gas and food; the last time gas was so expensive inflation was 11%.
Mr. Wilkinson's main theme is simply, "Hey, let's demand more. Let's go ahead and complain."
We might infer from his theme ('So what if the economy's still pretty good? This is America! That's not good enough') that he's real comfortable with criticism. So let loose. But don't look so stupid. Either focus on the substantive claims he made, or just assert "NO! Things are only ho-hum and let's NOT complain."
Mr. Willinson, and whomever he cites, is wrong about what measure consitutues a recession. It is determined [and has been for many years] by a committee of the nonprofit National Bureau of Economic Research; they use monthly data, not quarterly GDP. For more details visit www.nber.org and look for Recession dating committee.
What exactly are this man's qualifications and why, for the love of god, has it become compulsory for every American Public Radio news program to give a platform to a Cato or American Enterprise institute talking head in every other episode. This is drivel.
Lovely commentary. I agree, everyone talks about a threatening recession, but no one ever calls it. However, if the Democrats make it into office, they can call it and blame the Republicans.
Mr. Davis is lucky to get a 5% raise...mine was only 2%. This year, I'm lucky to have a job.
That's enough to keep the "dogs of kvetch" at bay, don't you agree?
Where does this cheerleader get his funding and information? Four percent inflation INCLUDING food and energy? Maybe last month, certainly not annually. I've listened to these CATO people before. Under scrutiny, their arguments in support of this economy don't hold water. Locally, food prices are up 12 percent, fuel over 26% (and that's a conservative estimate), power bills 15%, insurance and utilities closer to 10%. My pay went up 5% last year. This year, because of less work, we'll be lucky to get 3%. These CATO guys live in a well-subsidized dream world. I'll be expecting a response to this load of tripe spewed by Mr. Wilkinson tomorrow.
