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Post-election, a polling conundrum
U.S. President Barack Obama stands on stage after his victory speech at McCormick Place Nov. 6, 2012 in Chicago, Ill.
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Today -- or rather, last night -- was a big day for pollsters across the country and that includes Gallup. We talk to Frank Newport, editor-in-chief at Gallup, for our Attitude Check segment.
Early predictions from Gallup had suggested Mitt Romney would win the election. In its last poll before votes were tallied, Gallup predicted the popular vote would be tight, but that Romney would win by one point. Newport points out that some of the people who predicted Obama would win, including Nate Silver, don't do their own polling. They aggregate polls from many organizations, and Newport says this could have long-term effects on the polling industry that could result in fewer firms conducting their own polls.
Asked what he thought was most surprising about the election, Newport said turnout among non-white voters was one. But perhaps the biggest issue (though not necessarily a surprise) was that the candidate who was seen as being most trusted on the economy didn't win. Romney wasn't able to translate his success as a businessman into an election win.
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Kai, I call "foul!" I am so glad you questioned Mr. Newport this evening, but I felt you left a very important question on the table: "What is Gallup going to do to improve the quality of its methodology?"
Listening to Mr. Newport's excuses reminded me of a recent story where it is virtually impossible for a politician to reverse herself or himself these days without looking like a flip-flopper. It is sad that Gallup's estimates were so far off throughout this election cycle and sadder that they failed to admit their errors. Mr. Newport performed shamefully tonight, I lost a lot of respect for him during what is usually a very enjoyable segment.
Polls influence people and shape opinions...does Gallup have a political agenda? I question Gallup's credibility.
Jeff in Phoenix
I also came here to comment for the first time after tonight's segment. I have been wondering for some time if MARKETPLACE is actually damaging its own credibility through its partnership with Gallup. I was delighted that Kai asked Newport directly, more than once, to be clear about just how wrongly Gallup called this election.
And Newport's whining -- there is no other word for it -- about aggregators reminds me of the music industry complaining about file sharing or newspapers complaining about certain blogs. Sadly for Newport, the internet exists and business models have to account for it. Meanwhile, Gallup has to cop to the fact that they have done themselves major brand damage this cycle -- as I'm typing I just saw a TV story placing their accuracy this year on the same level as GOP-biased Rasmussen.
Seriously, MARKETPLACE can do better.
First, love the show. First post. And I was motivated to come to your site only after listening to Frank Newport tonight. What a crank. Gallup had Romney at +5 and +6 all along, and only after the hurricane hiatus and a shorter tracking time frame, did they call if for Romney by 1. That clearly was wrong. And for Newport to claim Gallup didn't get it right this time is just one more reason to be worried about our democracy.
Gallup did prove one thing this election cycle, however. That is we need people doing what Nate Silver does. An expert who can distill flaws and biases in polls, and aggregate them to create more reliable predictions. Thankfully, Gallup wasn't the only game in town, because they were (unwitting or not) selling a story this entire campaign, Romney was a winner and Obama a loser. Clearly, Gallup was very, very wrong.
Frank Newport, Ph.D., did not cover himself with glory on the show tonight. His whining about Nate Silver and the rest of the aggregate analysts reminded me of some of the sniveling concession speeches I heard last night. "It's not fair, and I'm gonna tale my ball and go home!!!"
This guy and his once-credible organization should be ashamed of what they have done to the tradition of George Gallup. They completely missed the boat. All the sweet talk from Newport can't hide that. They need to apologize and say they will review their processes and try harder next time.
There is no reason why Gallup could not do what Nate Silver has been doing while at the same time still conducting polls.
Nate has been successful by choosing the correct types of polls to aggregate and by aggregating it in a way to predict Electoral College Victory instead of being caught up in the Popular Vote.
And it seems to me that Nate just proved that pollsters are doing a good job. That there was no systemic liberal bias in the polling. In fact it was the Electoral College Blow Out the polls were predicting.
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