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Poll: How much do you like or trust public opinion polling?

After the first presidential debate on Wednesday, the political polling season is about to kick into high gear. Why polls matter, and why we like them so much.

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Never mind the policy specifics and positions on the issues enumerated in last night's debate. What matters, as we all know by now, is who won. While the campaigns and political watchers fixate on how big Gov. Mitt Romney's debate bounce will be, here at Marketplace World Headquarters, we don't care about any of that stuff. Instead, we look closer at the polls themselves and how to think about them. Frank Newport is the editor in chief at Gallup. He has a bone to pick with critics who say that polls aren't accurate predictors of voter behavior. "So far this election throughout the primary season, the polls have actually been quite accurate," said Newport. "If they said Mitt Romney was going to win a primary, he in fact did win the primary. And if they said Rick Santorum was going to win, he did win as well." And you might not be surprised to learn, pollsters have asked participants the meta-question: What they think about polls. "People actually like polls," Newport said. "Americans have more confidence in the wisdom of Americans than in their elected leaders." That makes polling critical in Newport's view. "The only way you can pay attention to Americans is to poll them, because there are so many of us."

About the author

Frank Newport, Ph.D., is the editor-in-chief at Gallup and appears regularly on Marketplace.
jader3rd's picture
jader3rd - Oct 6, 2012

The bandwagon effect is real, it's well studied, and I hate that it exists. We should work it out of affecting elections as much as possible. Make it illegal to report election results on election day. Make it a big surprise for the next day.

cwals99@yahoo.com's picture
cwals99@yahoo.com - Oct 5, 2012

We see on a national level a Gallup poll that asks 'Do you like charter schools'? Charter schools are being used as development tools moving underserved out of what will be future affluent schools in cities across the country. Now, one would not know if a response to this question was positive because the person liked that these charters allowed segregation or that the person liked charters for good education. The calls by the pollsters would most likely not reach the underserved who are largely effected by these schools. So they question is worthless.

On state and local levels polls are being done by marketing companies who specialize in getting their clients message to the public. So, if you have the governor pushing his/her issue using these marketing companies you will see the numbers always supporting the governor. Later, that issue will go to public referendum and be voted down because few people supported the issue.

So, it is obvious that these polling groups are skewing the data for what is now a corporate political scene. Both national political groups, Third Way corporate democrats and Republicans want to privatize public education, they both want taxes on the rich and corporations to remain low, they both want small government and privatizing public assets/jobs, they both want exceptional security, etc. So polls will show these issues with a majority.....when in fact that is not how most Americans feel.

DR's picture
DR - Oct 4, 2012

Please get rid of that stupid little thing you play right before this story. It's juvenile.