Questioning the reliability of ADP job numbers
A job applicant and a potential employer shake hands at the 'Denver Hires Job Fair' in Denver, Colorado.
Lately, those numbers have been off, and economists have been upset. But ADP defends its numbers. “Every month we’re a little above or below, but on average we’re almost right on,” says Sophia Koropeckyj, an economist at Moody's, which works with ADP to come up with the jobs numbers.
Koropeckyj acknowledges that they’ve tinkered with the formula used to come up with the ADP jobs number, adding information from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve. But she says, there are millions of jobs in this country, and their figure may be off by tens of thousands.
Here are their numbers for this month, via Jeoff Hall at Thomson Reuters:
Avg absolute miss between initial ADP and initial BLS estimates of private payrolls down 33% since methodology change pic.twitter.com/kT1dBiAugU
— Jeoff Hall (@JeoffHall) April 2, 2014