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Paul Krugman on fixing the global economy

The Nobel Prize-winning economist talks about the state of the global economy and what central banks need to do to help.

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Kai Ryssdal: You can analyze this stuff 'til you're blue in the face, but at some point the question does kinda become: How does a whole planet-full of people facing recession get out of it?

So we got a guy on the phone who knows a little something about international economics. That's what Paul Krugman got his Nobel Prize for. Welcome to the program.

Paul Krugman: Good to be on.

Ryssdal: So this is the third year out of three where we've made tiny steps forward, and then what seems like big, giant steps backward. What's happening? What's going on?

Krugman: Well, it's really two things I think. One is that it was never as good as anybody thought. There were not a lot of really solid things driving the economy forward. There's some underlying improvement -- household balance sheets are a little bit better, people have paid down some of their debt -- but there was really no strong, positive going-on in the U.S. economy. And then there's Europe, which is coming apart at the seams very rapidly now. So, between the two of those, of course we're getting a stutter in our own economy, and the possibility of something much, much worse if Europe blows up.

Ryssdal: What are you more worried about: Europe or our own domestic weakness?

Krugman: Oh, I mean, in terms of catastrophic risk, it's Europe. Europe is very close to the edge. They've pretty much run out of ways to paper over the problems. They either have to make a fundamental change in policy or we're really talking about the whole nightmare scenario of bank runs and possible breakup of the euro as currency. So Europe is the scary stuff, and you know, relatively speaking, we're in good shape, but that's not much consolation. And of course, we get at least some of the backwash from their problems.

Ryssdal: It sounds like you're chuckling so you don't cry.

Krugman: Oh yeah. I mean, what can you say? If you don't see the black humor, or the gallows humor, in all of this, I don't know how you get through it.

Ryssdal: If this is the first real global recession -- as is being talked about -- what do we do? How do we get out of it? Is there a way?

Krugman: No, it's by no means the first. One of the things that's so infuriating for some of us is that we're following a lot of the script of the 1930s. We've seen this movie before, and the amazing thing is that all of the villains are making the same mistakes that their counterparts did 80 years ago. So it's the same old thing. So what we should be doing, those governments that can borrow very cheaply -- which includes ours -- should for the time being be spending more, not less. This is a really good time to fill in the potholes and re-hire those schoolteachers. And the central banks -- the Fed, and even more, the European Central Bank -- really need to print a lot of money. This is not the time to obsess over inflation; this is the time to worry that if you don't have enough liquidity sloshing around, the whole thing just falls apart.

Ryssdal: The counterargument, though of course Mr. Krugman, is we just don't have the money and we just have to make it up out of thin air.

Krugman: Of course we would be making it up out of thin air, but you know, if you say we don't have the money, do you mean that we can't borrow? The U.S. government can borrow at the lowest interest rates in history.

Ryssdal: But not most of the eurozone, pointedly, right?

Krugman: Well because they don't have their own money. The problem with lending money to Greece or even to Spain is you're not actually sure what your claim is. You're lending money to a country that may drop out of the euro under pressure of bad policies being imposed upon them -- not most of their own bad policies. A loan to Spain may end up being a loan that was in pesetas, not in euros -- and of course it makes it very hard for them to raise money. But we're not in that position.

Ryssdal: So what do you do if you're a 30-year-old in the United States with a brand new law degree; or my mom, a retiree, widow -- I mean, what do you do?

Krugman: Well, those are, I mean, the trouble is, I can't in any good conscience tell people, 'You should go out there and spend and eat, drink and be merry because that'll help the economy.' You have to take care of your own needs first, but we've got a situation now where everyone doing what is individually sensible collectively adds up to a big problem, which is why we have governments. They're supposed to solve problems like this.

Ryssdal: Paul Krugman, his most recent book is called "End This Depression Now." Mr. Krugman, thanks for your time.

Krugman: Thank you.

About the author

Kai Ryssdal is the host and senior editor of Marketplace, public radio’s program on business and the economy. Follow Kai on Twitter @kairyssdal.

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Healing Toolbox's picture
Healing Toolbox - Jun 4, 2012

Krugman is good. For me, either he or Robert Reich is the natural choice for a Vice-Presidential running mate for our Democrat-in-name-only President.

What's strikingly missing from Krugman's talking points to my ear is: "Where there is no vision, the people perish."

There can be no new big govt. spending program, no big new jobs program, without a VISION OF A BETTER AMERICA.

The New Deal had a vision of a better America coming out of the Depression: "a chicken in every pot." But for 2012, you can't do a sequel; an entirely new vision is really called for, ad the Occupy Movement has hinted at.

You will have your better vision we should invest in; I have mine.

Mine is alternative energy, soil sustainability and reclamation, worker-owned biz and ultimately diverse intentional communities. I have yet to see any alternative to this vision of an optimal turn of events for the death-spiral of--not capitalism, not democracy--but corporate-driven consumer culture.

gb_gb's picture
gb_gb - Jun 4, 2012

When was the last time Krugman told govt should be spending less? Did he ever tell? At the height of the real estate bubble when economy was supposed to be roaring I didnt hear him saying govt should be spending less. Nor during dot com bubble did he say govt should be spending less. All he says is govt should print more money. How did he get Nobel prize. Seriously?

Healing Toolbox's picture
Healing Toolbox - Jun 4, 2012

Krugman is not a politician. He is a polite economist who knows his history and does a good job trying to remind people of what works and what does not based on past economic activity; admitedly, from a 60s Liberal point of view.

jeffyb's picture
jeffyb - Jun 4, 2012

I live just outside of Princeton, so I have heard Krugman speak many times. This guy is nothing but an ultra-left hack, and he contributed nothing new or meaningful to the dialogue about the recovery. Gee, what a shock that you have found another liberal lapdog who thinks the answer is for us to spend our way out of the current recession. Why oh why can't Marketplace find commentators who understand & articulate a more centrist philosophy? Guys like Robert Reich and Krugman apply exactly the same, parroted, scripted liberal prescription to every problem. This is getting really, really boring. Have you noticed that Democrats & Republicans are now the "minority"? Maybe you ought to start thinking about the rest of America?

Healing Toolbox's picture
Healing Toolbox - Jun 4, 2012

Wow, strong words but where is the solution you propose? Where is the history to back up your so-far-unheard solution? Krugman is by no means ultra-left. Neither is Robert Reich. Historically they are more accurately characterized as Kennedy-era Liberals.

Maybe you are thinking of economist Michael Hudson who criticizes Krugman here: http://michael-hudson.com/

Krugman, Reich and Richard D. Wolff all have growing popularity now because many hear them as rare voices of sanity in a political environment that is off the rails.

Wolff is here: http://rdwolff.com/

cmih's picture
cmih - Jun 4, 2012

"So what do you do if you're a 30-year-old in the United States with a brand new law degree."

Young, presumably healthy, and with a law degree. Oh, my! What a terrifying situaton! I hope your young lawyer won't have to forgo her daily Starbucks latte! Please do keep us updated on her situation.

Seriously, the mind boggles at trying to understand the reference points used by well-to-do people.

RichardNYC's picture
RichardNYC - Jun 4, 2012

Thank you for inviting Prof. Krugman to lay out his reasonable ideas. The role of government is essential.

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