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Paul Krugman on fixing the global economy

The Nobel Prize-winning economist talks about the state of the global economy and what central banks need to do to help.

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Kai Ryssdal: You can analyze this stuff 'til you're blue in the face, but at some point the question does kinda become: How does a whole planet-full of people facing recession get out of it?

So we got a guy on the phone who knows a little something about international economics. That's what Paul Krugman got his Nobel Prize for. Welcome to the program.

Paul Krugman: Good to be on.

Ryssdal: So this is the third year out of three where we've made tiny steps forward, and then what seems like big, giant steps backward. What's happening? What's going on?

Krugman: Well, it's really two things I think. One is that it was never as good as anybody thought. There were not a lot of really solid things driving the economy forward. There's some underlying improvement -- household balance sheets are a little bit better, people have paid down some of their debt -- but there was really no strong, positive going-on in the U.S. economy. And then there's Europe, which is coming apart at the seams very rapidly now. So, between the two of those, of course we're getting a stutter in our own economy, and the possibility of something much, much worse if Europe blows up.

Ryssdal: What are you more worried about: Europe or our own domestic weakness?

Krugman: Oh, I mean, in terms of catastrophic risk, it's Europe. Europe is very close to the edge. They've pretty much run out of ways to paper over the problems. They either have to make a fundamental change in policy or we're really talking about the whole nightmare scenario of bank runs and possible breakup of the euro as currency. So Europe is the scary stuff, and you know, relatively speaking, we're in good shape, but that's not much consolation. And of course, we get at least some of the backwash from their problems.

Ryssdal: It sounds like you're chuckling so you don't cry.

Krugman: Oh yeah. I mean, what can you say? If you don't see the black humor, or the gallows humor, in all of this, I don't know how you get through it.

Ryssdal: If this is the first real global recession -- as is being talked about -- what do we do? How do we get out of it? Is there a way?

Krugman: No, it's by no means the first. One of the things that's so infuriating for some of us is that we're following a lot of the script of the 1930s. We've seen this movie before, and the amazing thing is that all of the villains are making the same mistakes that their counterparts did 80 years ago. So it's the same old thing. So what we should be doing, those governments that can borrow very cheaply -- which includes ours -- should for the time being be spending more, not less. This is a really good time to fill in the potholes and re-hire those schoolteachers. And the central banks -- the Fed, and even more, the European Central Bank -- really need to print a lot of money. This is not the time to obsess over inflation; this is the time to worry that if you don't have enough liquidity sloshing around, the whole thing just falls apart.

Ryssdal: The counterargument, though of course Mr. Krugman, is we just don't have the money and we just have to make it up out of thin air.

Krugman: Of course we would be making it up out of thin air, but you know, if you say we don't have the money, do you mean that we can't borrow? The U.S. government can borrow at the lowest interest rates in history.

Ryssdal: But not most of the eurozone, pointedly, right?

Krugman: Well because they don't have their own money. The problem with lending money to Greece or even to Spain is you're not actually sure what your claim is. You're lending money to a country that may drop out of the euro under pressure of bad policies being imposed upon them -- not most of their own bad policies. A loan to Spain may end up being a loan that was in pesetas, not in euros -- and of course it makes it very hard for them to raise money. But we're not in that position.

Ryssdal: So what do you do if you're a 30-year-old in the United States with a brand new law degree; or my mom, a retiree, widow -- I mean, what do you do?

Krugman: Well, those are, I mean, the trouble is, I can't in any good conscience tell people, 'You should go out there and spend and eat, drink and be merry because that'll help the economy.' You have to take care of your own needs first, but we've got a situation now where everyone doing what is individually sensible collectively adds up to a big problem, which is why we have governments. They're supposed to solve problems like this.

Ryssdal: Paul Krugman, his most recent book is called "End This Depression Now." Mr. Krugman, thanks for your time.

Krugman: Thank you.

About the author

Kai Ryssdal is the host and senior editor of Marketplace, public radio’s program on business and the economy. Follow Kai on Twitter @kairyssdal.

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JustBobF's picture
JustBobF - Jun 5, 2012

I wish our president would listen to Paul Krugman...and Robert Reich.

Austrian School's picture
Austrian School - Jun 5, 2012

You can't really mak the claim that money is cheap to borrow so we should borrow more and spend since the government is now the #1 and #2 buyer of it's own debt. It's like writting yourself a check and putting it in your wallet so you can feel richer. When the government borrows and spends money at the same time as people are naturally reigning in their excesses of the past, you're just taking by force (taxing and inflation) what people wouldn't do voluntarily. You're stealing from the future to keep the current unsustainable party going just little longer instead of owning up to the reality that mistakes have been made, and wealth has been lost.

Krugman's ideas are popular for the same reason that diets books like "Get Thin Eating Anything You Want" are best sellers.

Greg L's picture
Greg L - Jun 5, 2012

Paul Krugman, Robert Reich, Eliot Spitzer, William Greider, Mat Taibbi---they all hit the nail on the head whenever they have a chance to speak, but their voices are routinely squelched out by those who would support the status quo of economic neo-liberalism. That we are discussing this at all in terms of "Who is right; Keynsians or supply-siders," shows how deep into denial many Americans still are. Personally, I believe conservatives know the end is coming, and that it is their economic policies of deregulation and privatization that created the impetus for financial armageddon; now, they just want to make sure "liberals" take the blame for it. Economist Joseph Stiglitz said it best in his book "Freefall," pointing out that 2008 and the collapse of Lehman Brothers was to capitalism what the fall of the Berlin Wall was to communism. And economist Ravi Batra predicted it all in his book "The Great Depression of 1990." There is no excuse for this being alowed to happen, except for a will to ignorance in the face of a greed frenzy, and the corporate corruption of our governments. A corporate raider for president, anyone?

Austrian School's picture
Austrian School - Jun 7, 2012

If you think what we've had in recent decades is capitalism, I think you're confused about what capitalism is. I'd say we've come pretty freaking far from capitalism. We have a central planning czar (Federal Reserve) fixed the price of capital, how is that capitalism?

amacd's picture
amacd - Jun 7, 2012

Greg, right on!

Those honest, informed, political-economic intellectuals you mention, in addition to Joseph Stiglitz and Richard Wolff are saying the exact same thing --- which is this truth:

It's not “jobs, jobs, jobs”

It's not “the economy, stupid”

It's not some lack of bipartisanship among the DGE's (Disguised Global Empire's) owned politicians.

It's the need to change the whole system.

And the needed change is from this current system of global capitalist Empire only posing as democracy to a new system of real and integrated; political, economic, and social democracy!

Best luck and love to the “Occupy Empire” educational and revolutionary movement.

Liberty, democracy, equality, and justice
Over
Violent/Vichy
Empire,

Alan MacDonald
Sanford, Maine

lindelf's picture
lindelf - Jun 5, 2012

re the comment: "The New Deal had a vision of a better America coming out of the Depression: "a chicken in every pot.""

That slogan was a Republican National Commttee slogan going INTO (not out of) the Depression. It was used in 1928 to help elect Hoover. The full slogan was "a car in every backyard and a chicken in every pot."

As the country saw in 1929, a slogan is neither a plan nor a vision.

Pat37027's picture
Pat37027 - Jun 5, 2012

Krugman says to borrow while interest rates are low, but we (Fed govt) buy what, 40%, of our own debt? I've heard other well-known/respected economists saying true interest rates are closer to 8% if we weren't artifically limiting them.

What happens when we spend/borrow all this money and China no longer buys our debt? The yield curve shatters and we are stuck with high inflation and unsustainable borrowing costs. Greece 2.0.

Thanks, Mr. Krugman, but I'll stick to decreasing our spending and our debt. Hopefully, Washington will do the same, but I doubt it.

izzy1224's picture
izzy1224 - Jun 5, 2012

I, too, have great respect for Krugman and Reich. I was a republican, now an independent. I will not be voting republican again until balance is restored to the economy. The economy is an ecosystem and the lions (top 1%) have overfed. Obama has a vision, but his hands are tied by big money which controls everything. I recently heard that dem. consultants are cautioning Obama to back off his attacks on Bain since donations from private equity firms are down 88% since he made those remarks. At his point, I'm ready for it all to fall. Europe. The US. Everything. Raze it all and start over. Take power away from the rich and give it back to innovators and entrepreneurs who live and breathe to create new industries and jobs, not hoard vast amounts of wealth and power.

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