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Too big to... succeed?

Today's big story is Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's proposal to Congress for regulating the financial system. You can read summaries of his testimony from Reuters, Marketwatch and The Washington Post. I'd like to highlight a couple things Geithner said, and a couple things he didn't say.

What he said, in a nutshell: One, the government needs to address systemic risk, the "too big to fail" problem. Two, consumers and investors need more protection -- better enforcement of existing rules, closing loopholes, increasing transparency -- in an effort to prevent lending abuse, Madoff schemes, AIG shell games. Three, regulate the unregulated or barely regulated -- hedge funds, non-bank financial companies, credit default swaps, executive compensation. Four, empower a single federal agency with policing risks in the financial system and assign clearer authority for other regulatory agencies. And finally, coordinate regulation with other countries.

Let me catch my breath for a second. The plan sounds like a brilliant model for retroactively preventing the collapse that's already happened, but is it too ambitious, excessive and unrealistic?

First, let's start with who's doing what. Actually, we can't do that. Geithner didn't tell us.
He said we need to start with the reforms...

"rather than the complex and sensitive questions of who should be responsible for what.
We must not let turf wars or concerns about the shape of organizational charts prevent us from establishing a substantive system of regulation that meets the needs of the American people."

But it's widely thought that the Fed will become that "super-regulator," the single agency in charge of managing risk. And if that's the case, you are switching from a model of micro-oversight to a macro model where there's only one place for the buck to stop. Now, it's obvious the current model has serious flaws. But if the Fed whiffs, considering the bazillion tasks it's already shouldering and considering its demonstrated lack of foresight, then what? Seems to me, who's doing what is a very big deal.

But let's go back to the reforms, since that's what we have in front of us. Geither not only wants to overhaul the US regulatory system, he also wants to work with the entire world to create a new one:

Geithner said that "at the center" of his proposal is the knowledge that the U.S. cannot move alone. "We will launch a new initiative," he said, "to address prudential supervision, tax havens, and money laundering issues in weakly regulated jurisdictions."

I understand the need for international cooperation in a global economy, but he's going to get serious push-back from other countries on this. A deep world recession is exactly the wrong time to try and coax world leaders out of their protectionist shells. It just won't happen. Besides, name one area in which global policing is effective. How about we focus on what this country needs to do first?

On a related note, the Becker-Posner blog takes the view that now is exactly the wrong time to do any of this regulation:

"But the most important point I would make is that there should be no new regulatory measures until the depression reaches bottom and recovery begins ... Any regulatory initiatives at this time will simply increase the already great uncertainty in which the financial industry is operating; and as Keynes pointed out, anything that increases uncertainty in a depression causes hoarding, which can in turn precipitate a deflation likely to deepen and protract an economic downturn."

We have to start on the regulation some time, but there is a system in place and many of these problems could be solved by tweaking the oversight instead of throwing the baby out with the bath water. Then there's that other saying. Haste makes... bailout sink holes.

Finally, Geithner said this:

"... we need to establish a stronger resolution mechanism that gives the government tools to protect the financial system and the broader economy from the potential failure of large complex financial institutions."

A glaring omission here -- why should these extra-large financial institutions be allowed to exist in the first place? Instead of trying to prevent them from failing, why aren't we trying to prevent them from being?

This was a point of discussion at our morning meeting. Marketplace Senior Business Correspondent Bob Moon asked why do we have antitrust laws? They've done very little to stop corporations from becoming industry-devouring-and-destroying Pac-Men. The American system has prided itself on survival of the fittest and dog-eat-dog and all that, but once upon time, wasn't it also about making sure there was competition left and that no one got too big to take down the system?

Just some things to consider as we start down this road of regulation. We didn't think long and hard about some of the bailout moves, but we do need to think carefully here. Geithner says he wants to simplify regulation, make it clearer. And that's great. But I'm not sure overreaching or forgetting what we already have in place will accomplish that at all.

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Marshall S's picture
Marshall S - Mar 26, 2009

I, too, wondered why failing banks were sold to big institutions, which of course, became bigger, rather than to smaller ones. My guess is that American culture is too deeply committed to rewarding the biggest/best, which just keep getting bigger. The Geithner takeover proposal keeps the government out of the loop, until it's too late, and a big institution fails. What's good about this is that at that point, the current owners suffer a loss (good because it motivates the owners to have some oversight); and a disbursal of the "big" into parts -- perhaps going to many smaller institutions -- can occur. The bad thing about this is that it can motivate a wrong culture of excessive risk taking by business leaders, and general instability, as compared with the approach of having many, smaller businesses that have some independence. Of course, the idea of smaller institutions being independent is now suspect (due to contractual cross-linking obligations).

Jeff P's picture
Jeff P - Mar 26, 2009

...the essence of our present troubles seem to be related to two things-

1) Our financial system used to be based on risks and rewards. The bigger the risk, the bigger the potential reward. Previously huge risks were not taken very often because 'somebody' had worked hard to accumulate the capitol which was being put at risk and that 'somebody' tended to be extremely reluctant to lose the priciple. Thus balance was maintained. CDSs (ala AIG) fly in the face of this. They break a very important link in the chain of responsibility/due diligence and create the seductive illusion of a large but safe, make that guaranteed, return.

2)"too large to fail"- nothing ever created by man has attained this size and we fool ourselves with the concept. As you have rightly stated, competition is fundamental to a healthy system. A competitive system, although not the most efficient, is the best. It achieves something critical in complex systems- redundancy. Redundancy creates fault tolerance- some of the pieces might fail, but it is extremely unlikely that all will. The overall system will recover quickly via the survivors. By limiting size of the players, we reduce the need for all-seeing, all-knowing regulators.

So, the solution, regardless of when of it is implemented is two-fold.
1) Outlaw CDSs- let those who invest do so at their own peril.

2) Rigorously enforce antitrust statutes- do not allow the degree of redundancy be reduced to the point of ineffectivity- we need the redundancy for the fault tolerance.

John H's picture
John H - Mar 26, 2009

I don't see why we have to wait for the recession to end to reform regulation. So long as the reforms are prudent they shouldn't cause systematic market uncertainty.

If regulation were drafted today there'd likely be a long period for review, revision, and prepatation before enforcement. Look at the switch to digital TV that has been in progress for quite some time.

We've already seen over the past several years that when times are good people call for less regulation. Politicians play to the current mood and the American public seems to have a short collective memory... once things pick up we'll again hear the calls for deregulation, not more regulation.

Sid G's picture
Sid G - Mar 27, 2009

My understanding of finance isn't what it used to be. I'm hoping someone can answer a few questions for me.

1. Since we have banks 'too big to fail', shouldn't we stop other banks from getting so big rather than working on a plan to bail them out ? The banks that became too big to fail did so because they bought other banks. Why did we allow this and will it continue ? Some 'too big' banks like WaMu became part of another bank making it even more 'too big'. Does this make sense ?

2. Geithner told lawmakers that such products and institutions "should be regulated for the economic function they provide and the risks they present, not the legal form they take." WHAT ? Is congress going to write regs from this ? I've got a bad feeling that Washington wants to fix regs but not the mess that cannot be regulated. Are banks going to continue doing what they have been doing only with some new rules. (That's a stupid question. We all know where the REAL power is.)

3. Geitner also said : "Let me be clear: The days when a major insurance company could bet the house on credit default swaps with no one watching and no credible backing to protect the company or taxpayers from losses must end," . Can they bet if someone IS watching ? How much credible backing would they need ? Let's make sure that all publicly traded companies have the stock ratings they deserve. The companies that gave AIG a clean audit and AAA rating ought to be in front of congress explaining. If AIG had transparency, wouldn't they have stopped before things got so far out of hand ? I know I would have dumped my mutual funds that owned shares of AIG.

4. Why isn't a bank a bank and an insurance company (AIG) an insurance company ? I'm not sure I even know what a bank is anymore. These mega financial institutions are just way too big and complicated. If Wells Fargo wants to sell PB&J sandwiches, why can't they form a new corporation and go at it. If an institution is a bank, it follows bank regs. If it wants to sell insurance, another set of rules. (Banks do not sell PB&J sandwiches).

I've got a lot more questions but right now I'm too frustrated to continue.