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There's never been a better time...

Home builders and real estate agents are really pushing the government's $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit. To take advantage of it, people have to close by November 30th. That means they'd better get moving.

Here's the deal -- the full $8,000 is available to individuals making less than $75,000, double that for joint filers. A lot of people don't realize you can qualify as long as you haven't owned a home in the past three years. If you don't use the entire tax credit, you'll get the rest by check.

There's been some talk about extending the credit, but there's also a lot of resistance in Congress to any new form of stimulus.

Today, the National Association of Home Builders released its housing affordability index, and not surprisingly, said homes are very affordable. It also took the opportunity to make a pitch for extending the credit:

"The increase in affordability -- along with the $8,000 federal tax credit for home buyers -- is stimulating demand, particularly among young, first-time buyers," said NAHB Chairman Joe Robson, a home builder from Tulsa, Okla. "But to keep the recent upturn in home sales going into next year, Congress will need to extend the tax credit for another year and make it available to all buyers in an effort to encourage activity in the trade-up market."

But a lot of people aren't buying that argument. From Reuters:

Still, distressed prices, plenty of available properties and low borrowing costs should keep housing from falling apart anew once the home buyer credit disappears, said Gregory Miller, chief economist at SunTrust Bank in Atlanta.

"These programs are giving housing a boost," he said. "When the tax credit expires, the housing market should have even more legs under it" and gain traction on affordability.

"Housing is on a sustainable path," Miller added. "We have those who wanted to buy before but couldn't afford the price, and those who would have bought before but couldn't sell the existing house. Both of those groups are lined up to buy now."

As long as they're lined up to buy homes that a. they can afford and b. they can still afford if they have a financial setback. I'm still a little nervous about the job market when it comes to people taking on new loans. Tougher credit standards are supposedly in place, but at the same time, the real estate industry has to be extremely motivated to sell homes at this point.

What do you think? And do we need to further stimulate the market with this credit or let it die?

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Mike's picture
Mike - Aug 23, 2009

That is what they always say. Is this taught in real-estate 101 or something? Do they spend hours in front of the mirror saying "there has never been a better time to buy a house"..

After a while the smart people within the general public start to figure out that this sales crap is SO transparent and we believe NOTHING we're told anymore, by anyone.

Sorry. Its just the truth.

Ἐγκώμιον Shill 's picture
Ἐγκώμιο... - Aug 22, 2009

"
Oyster winked his eye, And shook his heavy head— Meaning to say he did not choose To leave the oyster-bed.
"

Not usually but for this one we will need to go with Lewis Carol. I think we will need to order lot of new credit cards, put house payments on credit card every month, go to work sober, go early, work hard, work overtime. Work will increase company profits to allow company to stop firing but start rehiring. The rehiring should induce multiplier effect to open up more companies jobs, payrolls, increase house price, and let the good times roll.

This is half-time. It is now time for the second half of the game. Knock 'm dead.

DVDA's picture
DVDA - Aug 20, 2009

I agree with Gary. I'm in the market, but I feel no rush just to lock in the 8k credit. If it expires, I'll just lower my asking price by 8k when I do start making offers. I've been tracking a number of properties for close to a year now, and the price cuts just keep coming. The bottom is still a ways off, I'm happy to wait.

JPM's picture
JPM - Aug 20, 2009

With more bad banks poised to collapse, I am sitting on the sideline too scared and too broke to jump in. Housing is still ridiculously priced in my area. Seventy-five percent of foreclosed houses refuse to lower their price.

Gary's picture
Gary - Aug 20, 2009

I'm looking at the housing data, and every indication is that debt deflation will continue. Say, for example, that I expect the average home price to drop $20K by the end of the year. That $8K tax credit is not a gain of $8K, it's a $12K loss.

Ned D.'s picture
Ned D. - Aug 19, 2009

They better hope they can find a good paying job by November.

Don Meinshausen's picture
Don Meinshausen - Aug 19, 2009

"O Oysters, come and walk with us!"
The Walrus did beseech.
"A pleasant walk, a pleasant talk,
Along the briny beach:
We cannot do with more than four,
To give a hand to each."

The eldest Oyster looked at him,
But never a word he said:
The eldest Oyster winked his eye,
And shook his heavy head--
Meaning to say he did not choose
To leave the oyster-bed.