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How Goldman beat the housing market

One question that keeps sticking around: How did Goldman Sachs manage to get out of the building before it burned down? One answer -- it sneaked out the back door while no one was paying attention.

McClatchy reviewed hundreds of documents, SEC filings and other material to piece together the story on this. Read the entire article here. The basics: In 2006 and 2007, Goldman sold more than $40 billion worth of securities that were backed by subprime mortgages. Goldman just didn't tell the people buying the securities that it was secretly betting against those loans:

"The Securities and Exchange Commission should be very interested in any financial company that secretly decides a financial product is a loser and then goes out and actively markets that product or very similar products to unsuspecting customers without disclosing its true opinion," said Laurence Kotlikoff, a Boston University economics professor who's proposed a massive overhaul of the nation's banks. "This is fraud and should be prosecuted."

The courts will get a shot at this. Several pension funds and other institutional investors have sued Goldman:

Mississippi Attorney General Jim Hood... assailed the investment banks "who packaged this junk and sold it to unwary investors."

California's huge public employees' retirement system, known as CALPERS, purchased $64.4 million in subprime mortgage-backed bonds from Goldman on March 1, 2007. While that represented a tiny percentage of the fund's holdings, in July CALPERS listed the bonds' value at $16.6 million, a drop of nearly 75 percent, according to documents obtained through a state public records request.

At Clusterstock, John Carney argues Goldman wasn't keeping any secrets:

Goldman's top economist was warning about the housing market way back in 2005. In reaction to a study published by two academics in the Wall Street Journal that purported to show there was no housing bubble, Hatzius authored a note titled "Bubble Trouble? Probably Yes."

It was written in the same cautious language of most of these Wall Street economists notes but it's message was unmistakable: house prices are over-inflated and due for a serious decline.

That hardly addresses the issue of whether Goldman was selling a product it knew was garbage in order to make a killing on its inevitable rotting. I'd like to know what kind of legal protection Goldman put in its prospectus, and whether that'll hold up in court.

But the pension funds and the rating agencies share some of the blame here. No one forced pension funds and other similar investors to ramp up their risk exposure by seeking out higher returns. At the same time, they probably didn't think there was much risk because these trash collections were rated AAA.

In McClatchy's story, Duke law professor points out another problem:

Cox said that existing laws, however, don't require sufficient disclosures about trading, and that the government would do well to plug that hole.

Either there are rules in place to protect investors or there aren't. In the latter case, if you decide to wade in, you best assume sharks are in the water.

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zouzou's picture
zouzou - Nov 2, 2009

My question is: How come no one noticed Goldman was selling their MBS's? Unless all the transactions were made in the "Dark Pools," the transactions information would have been out in the market. And, is Goldman supposed to keep holding an investment vehicle when it knows it's a bad investment? Wouldn't Calpers (or any investor for that matter) try to unload the junk?

I think Calpers (and other investors) were at the euphoric stage of being drugged. It seems Goldman was (probably) the only one that didn't sniff the powder. Isn't it a good thing then that we have at least one SANE large bank/investor to look up to?

Anonymous's picture
Anonymous - Nov 3, 2009

Was it sanity or intentional? Create a bunch of dodgy investment vehicles with inflated ratings and the get out before everyone else figures out the scheme.

Ned D.'s picture
Ned D. - Nov 2, 2009

Goldman was not the only entity that was saying the subprime system and the global derivatives market was a bubble on the verge of collapsing. Lots of people were it's just that no one was listening. Robert Reich did several pieces here on Marketplace warning that the consumer market was running out of steam (i.e. cash) and that "people were exhasting credit limits and starting to pull money out of their houses" and that the system was unsustainable.

The quote below is an important point. Many pension funds have policies that require them to invest only in things that meet minimum ratings. The problem was that the ratings were bogus.

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"But the pension funds and the rating agencies share some of the blame here. No one forced pension funds and other similar investors to ramp up their risk exposure by seeking out higher returns. At the same time, they probably didn’t think there was much risk because these trash collections were rated AAA."
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Allen's picture
Allen - Nov 6, 2009

First off, by it's very nature the person selling something is betting against it. they've decided they're going to get all the value they can from it or the risk is too high or, well, maybe they just need the cash right now.

I don't want to excuse the rating agencies but we're talking about huge funds making huge investments. Couldn't they put a weeks' worth of research into the housing market to get a feel for it before risking hundreds of millions in investments?

My gutt feeling is they didn't want to know. The cities, counties and states weren't putting enough cash into their pension obligations and needed to play catch up by landing bigger returns in the market. Now that they've been burned, instead of saying mea cupla they're fishing for a scape goat.