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The Great Recession is over
So says a report out today from the National Association for Business Economics. The survey of economists also predicts this won't be a double-dip recession where we see another downturn next year. Now, about the job market...
The predictions are not so encouraging. DS News explains what the NABE says about the 7.2 million jobs lost in the recession:
... more than half the economists surveyed don't expect the lost jobs to be recovered until 2012 and two-fifths say it will take even longer. Unemployment is likely to peak at 10 percent before falling to 9.5 percent by the end of next year.
The high unemployment rate will continue to weigh on the economy, the survey found, according to news reports. However, it will also dampen inflation, which is expected to remain low.
The NABE says the Fed will keep interest rates near zero into next year, but then start inching them up. The housing market is about to bottom out, and home prices will gain 2% in 2010. This is a consensus forecast, mind you. Some economists are more bearish than others. I read one prediction that had unemployment peaking next Spring at 11.4%.
Have you seen anything where you are to suggest these predictions are wrong?
But if you click on nothing else today, make sure you check out this map of the jobs gained and loss in the past five years. Press play in the upper left-hand corner. It's remarkable.
The Geography of Jobs is interesting, although all the red dots look like we're getting bombed by nuclear weapons "cold-war" style.
I did find it interesting that the big red spike in 2005 correalted to Hurricane Katrina. Granted it would seem fairly obvious but it puts it into perspective with the rest of the country.
The geographic map of job losses is interesting and I appreciate the effort. However I will be the wet blanket and remind readers that graphic representations are sometimes inaccurate in that they present linear one dimensional data (job losses) as growing in two dimensions (land area).
Unless they are using one job to equal one square mile and mapping that to the circles over time then the graphic is exaggerating the change by equating a simple one dimensional numerical value with the geometric growth of an area.
Insert sad fog horn noise here. Wah-Wah...
Fed Reserve Board vice chairman Kohn says not to expect a V-shaped recovery.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/recovery-wont-be-v-shaped-kohn-forecast...
The top of the financial food chain with the government’s help wants to prejudice your perception toward positive spending.

Instilling confidence is intended to move consumers to borrow and spend. Don’t listen to the noise.
http://pacificgatepost.com/2009/10/economy-outlook-is-your-outlook.html
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The graphic is cute, yet with the exception of government throwing a bunch of our money into the economy what's really changed to improve employment and the cause of our issues? Spending is what got us into this and now government wants us to spend our way out of it. Financially, government is way too powerful. Similarly to religion, we should separate government from banking.
