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A clunker of an idea?

Today, the House voted to spend another $2 billion on the Cash for Clunkers program. You know, trade in your old gas guzzler, and the government gives you a $4,500 rebate on a new, better MPG model. It seems like a no-brainer if you're in the market for a car, but unfortunately, the program might also be missing some brains.

First, the good. I talked to our reporter Stacey Vanek-Smith. She's working on a story for tonight's Marketplace, and on one side, you have people who say this is excellent stimulus. It gets money down into the roots of the economy because the car business is one of those with a big multiplier effect. An increase in sales ripples through the supply chain. From Automotive News:

"This is the first glimmer of hope we've seen in the auto industry," House Appropriations Committee Chairman David Obey, D-Wis., who sponsored the bill, said on the House floor.

But you have to wonder how long the buzz will last. As we've seen before, once people get hooked on rebates, they want more rebates, and sales die when there's no dope left. Is the government just feeding the car rebate addiction by putting more money into the program?

Edmunds.com took this viewpoint earlier this week:

Edmunds.com's research shows that typically 200,000 vehicles worth less than $4,500 are traded in for new vehicles every three months. At best the current Cash for Clunkers program will fund 250,000 such transactions in the same time period -- a gain of only 50,000 vehicles. Given that this program is budgeted to cost $1,000,000,000, this increase will come at the cost of $20,000 per extra sale.

"The incremental sales will be limited and at a considerable cost. In effect, we are paying consumers to do something most would do anyway," said Jeremy Anwyl, CEO of Edmunds.com. "So as a stimulus, the program fails. One could make a slightly stronger argument about the environmental benefits, but even there, the program could have been better designed."

That's because the requirements are pretty lax in terms of improving gas mileage.

Even dealers have mixed feelings about it. Sure, it gets people in the showroom, but a. there's a ton of paperwork and b. they're nervous they won't get reimbursed by the government. I found this in a Maine TV news story (Russell is a local car dealer):

"We've done 79...that's more than $300,000 that we've put out to consumers and yet we haven't received a dime from the government. Not a penny."

RUSSELL SAYS IT WOULDN'T BE SO BAD IF HE WAS MAKING HUGE PROFITS ON THE SALES OF THE NEW, ENERGY-EFFICIENT CARS...BUT THAT'S NOT THE CASE.

"This car, for example, right here, there's a $300-$400 profit for the dealer and we're risking $4500 to realize that."

But man, oh, man, if you have an older car and want a new one, this is a good deal. The New York Times had a couple of examples:

Paul, a Wheels commenter, wrote last week that he traded in a 1999 Lincoln for a 2009 Hyundai GLS Elantra under the program. He paid $8,700 for a car that costs about $15,000.

Another commenter, Red Oscar, wrote that he traded in an old Astro Van and ended up paying $11,000 for a new Dodge Caliber. The base model, the SE, goes for about $17,000.

Tell me what you're thinking...

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JPM's picture
JPM - Aug 4, 2009

Sorry Scott, I didn't see the question at the end. I have an 00 ford F150 that I take back and forth to work. I will not be trading it in cause it's still a good vehicle. The cost it would take me to get a new vehicle is not equal in gas savings, so I will get my value out of the vehicle since it's paid for.

JPM's picture
JPM - Aug 3, 2009

I wonder what is going to happen when the program dies out. Everyone will have a new car and noone will need to buy.

Ned D.'s picture
Ned D. - Aug 3, 2009

When the economy recovers, people may just go back to buying cars that get less than 18 mpg.

JPM's picture
JPM - Aug 3, 2009

Now is a great time to buy vehicles less than 18 mpg and ones above. So, who will be driven to consume?

Ned D.'s picture
Ned D. - Aug 3, 2009

Whoever has cash, I guess.

Ned D.'s picture
Ned D. - Aug 3, 2009

I think they should make this an ongoing program that's funded by a 1-cent per gallon gasoline tax. In the long run, I think that reduced demand will hold gas prices down much more than 1-cent.

I also think the benefit should be granted sliding scale, so that anyone can trade in for a car that gets at least 4 mpg better mileage no matter what the current mileage is.

Perhaps they could limit the destruction of the traded cars to only those that get less than some minimum of like 18-20 mpg.

Plus, I bet the environmetnal benefit from this program on a dollar-for-dollar bases beats almost anything else they've ever tried.

JPM's picture
JPM - Aug 3, 2009

There is one major fatal flaw in your idea. I strongly suspect that car prices will shoot up about 4,500 bucks. Pretty much, it would be a subsidy to the car industry run through the people.

I'd have to say that the environmental impact is probably nill when you consider how much plastic is going to be burned off the scrap steel. Destroying the cars is a waste of all the time and energy that went into making a 17 mpg vehicle, but also, all the components that are going to be landfilled, burned off, or transported across seas because of it.

Ned D.'s picture
Ned D. - Aug 3, 2009

Yes, it's a subsidy but it's demand-side instead of supply-side. The consumer will pocket most of the subsidy rather than the corporation. Plus, it is shifting buying habits towards slightly higher mpg cars.

JPM's picture
JPM - Aug 4, 2009

But when demand goes up, prices go up if supply is mitigated. Which it's easy to control supply when you know you have a steady market.

RM's picture
RM - Aug 2, 2009

Typical government program... cash-for-clunkers is already costing THREE TIMES it's original estimate. Imagine the DISASTER if these politicians attempt healthcare reform.

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