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Bloggers call it like they see it

I'm participating in an exciting new project from The Kauffman Foundation on entrepreneurship. I'm on the advisory board for a new quarterly survey of economic bloggers. The first survey is out today, and the results are pretty clear. The economy's doing worse than the government says it is, the government's too involved and Congress gets an "F".

Read all the results here, but some highlights:

About 80 econ bloggers were surveyed. They represent diverse political views (according to the responses -- 47% independent, 19% Democrat, 16% Republican, 18% other).

About half of bloggers said economic conditions were worse than official statistics indicated. Only six percent said they were better. 33 percent said the economy was weak, seven percent said it was strong. The remainder said it was mixed. More:

When asked for the growth prospects for key measures of economic activity over the next three years, the largest increases are expected to be in interest rates, inflation, and the budget deficit. U.S. output and jobs are expected to increase, but with about half the intensity of growth in global output.

71% said the government is "too involved in the economy." 17% called for greater involvement. We also gave out some grades. Here are the Grade Point Averages:

Watchdog groups (CBO, GAO, etc) 2.3
US business community 2.2
European Central Bank 2.0
Federal Reserve 1.7
World Bank 1.6
Wall Street firms 1.2
Congress .7

It reminds me of the scene from Animal House when Dean Wormer is telling the Delta pledge class its grades. Congress is John Belushi. MR. BLUTARSKY: ZERO-POINT-ZERO.

Another question -- How important are the following to the health US economy? Summarizing the answers:

Entrepreneurs: Very important
Innovation: Very important
Free trade: Very important
Education: Very important
Big business: Somewhat important
Manufacturing: Somewhat important
Labor unions: Unimportant

When asked what the government should be doing, the only policies with more than 50 percent support were: increase high-skill immigration and increase legal immigration at all skill levels. Two policies stood out sharply with near-unanimous opposition: increasing business regulation and raising barriers to international trade.

Let's discuss. Do econ bloggers have it about right? Or do you see any of this differently?

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don meinshausen's picture
don meinshausen - Feb 2, 2010

<i>And guess what… Bolivia is better for it today.</i><p>
I'm sorry, I can't take your word for it. In spite of being rich in natural resources, Bolivia has the lowest GDP per capita in South America. As an American patriot, I will never support the nationalization of anything. But I am glad that we agree that friendship and work with foreign people is wonderful for education and I hope you believe that only very limited regulation of immigration is necessary.

ChacoKevy's picture
ChacoKevy - Feb 2, 2010

Yes, Bolivia is the poorest country in South America, but that isn't a new title they recently earned, rather it's the blight they have had for decades.

Bolivia largely deferred to the free-market consultants such as Jeff Sachs in the 80's and 90's, and was met with stagnant growth. I understand clearly your stance against nationalization of natural resources, but, for Bolivia, it meant claiming greater share of their energy revenues from foreign firms, PetroBras chief among them.

That's ok that you don't take my word for it, you can check the IMF's year-over-year GDP, as well as GDP per capita tracking. Sanchez de Lozada, the pro-market President was run out of town in 2003. President Evo Morales, Socialist, took office in 2005
<a href="http://www.indexmundi.com/bolivia/gdp_(official_exchange_rate).html"> Bolivian GDP

<a href="http://www.indexmundi.com/bolivia/gdp_per_capita_(ppp).html"> Bolivian GDP per capita

JPM's picture
JPM - Feb 3, 2010

"In 2005, the government passed a controversial hydrocarbons law that imposed significantly higher royalties and required foreign firms then operating under risk-sharing contracts to surrender all production to the state energy company in exchange for a predetermined service fee. After higher prices for mining and hydrocarbons exports produced a fiscal surplus in 2008, the global recession in 2009 slowed growth. A decline in commodity prices that began in late 2008, a lack of foreign investment in the mining and hydrocarbon sectors, a poor infrastructure, and the suspension of trade benefits with the United States will pose challenges for the Bolivian economy in 2010."
It seems the revolt scared business away. Did Bolivia take short term profit in spite of long term stability?

ChacoKevy's picture
ChacoKevy - Feb 3, 2010

Perhaps it's too soon to talk about what 2010 will look like for Bolivia. Remember that commodity prices in 2009 were the correction for the 2008 bubble. With that in mind, I'm yet to hear from anyone who says that energy commodities will do anything but go up over the long term.

U.S. and Bolivia are indeed losing out on each other by their current icy relations, but understand it is largely tied to coca eradication policies. No other country wages war on drugs like America does, and so American-Bolivian trade situation is rather unique.

I think the passage about foreign investment is incomplete. Sure, Argentina and Bolivia were scared off, but Iran and Venezuela have since stepped up (Believe me, I know that is its own can of worms (if you are a poor farmer, do you care?)) and you can be sure the Chinese will fill the void of the US in short order.

JPM's picture
JPM - Feb 3, 2010

I prefer this site when looking at countries.

<a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bl.html" target="_blank"> Here</a>

don meinshausen's picture
don meinshausen - Feb 2, 2010

<i>Bolivia largely deferred to the free-market consultants such as Jeff Sachs in the 80’s and 90’s, and was met with stagnant growth. </i><p>
What credit do you give de Lozada for stopping hyperinflation?

ChacoKevy's picture
ChacoKevy - Feb 3, 2010

I give credit to Goni entirely. However, a huge part of Sach's "Shock Therapy" was contingent on debt cancellation. Can anyone say for certain that market liberalization would have been successful without debt cancellation? Conversely, what would have happened to inflation if debt cancellation were granted alone?

Also, the hyperinflation correction was in '85-'86. Taming inflation down to 11% established the boliviano as a solid currency, sure. But my questions lie in the following 20 years thereafter.

Tom Shillock's picture
Tom Shillock - Feb 2, 2010

This is discouraging. Having an opinion at the level of abstraction of whether the government is “too involved in the economy” is daft. Without the legal and regulatory infrastructure of government there would not be much of an economy. The myth of the noble savage economy unfettered by government, as it were, is so profoundly ignorant as to be a neurotic fantasy.

The overriding problem and the preeminent cause of the Great Recession has been the abdication of government responsibility in favor of concentrated moneyed interests such as financial oligarchs, medical and military industrial complexes and insurance companies just to finger the key culprits. Nothing has changed under Obama.

As far as the responses that garnered more than 50 percent about what government should be doing to help the economy, the bloggers sound like they’ve been too busy blogging to do their research. Their recommendation for more high skill immigration is not simply a matter of moving people from, say, India to the U.S. If they had done their homework they would have realized that “virtual immigration” is accelerating during the Great Recession (see the recent Dallas Fed economic letter on the subject). Because of communications technologies there is less need to move people across geographic borders when the products of their labor in the form of information can be moved more quickly at lower cost.

Again, the responses / opinions about business regulation in the abstract is puerile at best. What matters is (A) the nature of the regulations and (B) whether and how they are enforced.

As for international trade the U.S. government tilts it in favor of corporations that help defray their political campaign expenses. America functions like a corporate banana republic. So called developing countries, especially the poorer ones such as in Africa are exploited by U.S. trade policies. International trade is neither free nor equal. Read Stiglitz’s books for a better understanding (Making Globalization Work and Globalization and its Discontents).

don meinshausen's picture
don meinshausen - Feb 2, 2010

<i>Without the legal and regulatory infrastructure of government there would not be much of an economy. </i><p>
In spite of excessive and arthritic legal and regulatory infrastructures, we still have economies. The only ingredient necessary for economies are people with goods and services to offer each other.<p>
<i>The myth of the noble savage economy unfettered by government...</i><p>
"unfettered" did you really say "unfettered"? What is a noble savage in fetters? The happy prosperous citizen of a thriving democracy or something else?

Scott Jagow's picture
Scott Jagow - Feb 2, 2010

Tom, I believe you wouldn't have had nearly a 70% response to the government involvement question if this survey were done two years ago. I'm sure that's a reaction to the bailouts. Looking back, I agree the business regulation question is too vague, and as Chaco points out above, there should be a distinction between financial regulation and other types of business regulation.

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