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Banks not lending? Baloney

A Federal Reserve official said this week that "banks are still not lending." He also said access to credit remains difficult for households and small businesses. That part is true. The first statement is not.

Here's what was said, from Moneynews:

Despite a more stable financial system, banks are still not lending and the quality of loans on their books continues to get worse as the U.S. housing market remains in the doldrums, a top official at the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday.

"Access to credit also remains difficult, especially for households and small businesses that depend significantly on banks for financing," said Jon Greenlee, Associate Director for Bank Supervision and Regulation at the Fed.

Ah, but banks are lending -- lots and lots of money. Not to households and small businesses, but to the same entity that is providing the money to lend. The government.

Marketplace Senior editor Paddy Hirsch explains in his latest Whiteboard video: How the big banks make the big bucks.

One thing in Paddy's excellent explanation that I must quibble with: He says banks are borrowing from the Fed at practically zero interest, then lending it to the Treasury by purchasing government bonds, and collecting the interest at maturity. But he uses the example of a 5% interest rate. Rates on one-year T-bills are nowhere near that. They're about a third of a percent. I doubt banks are raking in the dough that way. More likely, they are buying long-term bonds to keep on their books and/or foreign bonds from emerging economies that are paying higher interest. Either way, and I know this sounds counterintuitive, but banks are exposing themselves. Reuters explains:

Historically, banks' risk models have tended to assume that the bonds of developed countries were close to risk-free assets. No longer. The government finances of peripheral countries such as Greece and Ireland are already creaking. And many investors believe it is only a matter of time before ratings agencies lower the UK's credit rating. A downgrade -- or, heaven forbid, a default -- could leave banks exposed.

"Banks are filling their books with long-dated government paper, funded with short-term government funding," said a senior executive at a large UK-based bank, who asked not to be named. "It's the biggest carry trade in the world."

Banks are also taking the free money from the Fed and turning profits in the securities markets. There again, the banks are increasing their risk:

Analysts at FBR Capital Markets estimate that up to 40 percent of investment banking revenue over the last 12 months has come from banks trading with their own funds, compared with a more typical level of about 25 percent.

All of the top U.S. banks have reported rising value-at-risk levels, signaling that their biggest trading loss on most days is rising.

Take Goldman Sachs, for example. Its biggest possible loss on 95 percent of the trading days in 2009 was $218 million, compared with $180 million for 2008. For JPMorgan Chase the largest possible loss for 99 percent of its trading days in 2009 was $248 million, compared with $202 million.

So while the banks seem to be getting a sweet deal from the government right now, they'd better be careful. Buying government bonds is a way for them to reduce the riskiness of their balance sheets, historically. But we've never been here before -- the trillions being borrowed by these governments. And if the banks are increasing their risk elsewhere, like in securities, what happens if the market crashes again? Despite the sense that government would step in, there won't be (and shouldn't be) any refuge left to offer.

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Anonymous's picture
Anonymous - Jan 28, 2010

We're doomed.

juli's picture
juli - Jan 29, 2010

Apparently, the banks consider loans to individuals and small business to be riskier than T bonds and other countries' bonds. Is that because the governments can legally print money and individuals cannot?

Bob Singleton's picture
Bob Singleton - Jan 28, 2010

I have a credit score of 780. Two banks offered to refinance my car loan. ( the 2 banks US Bank and Fifth Third Bank). When the first bank turned me down ,I asked for the reason.
I was told I was turned down because of Insuffeciant Activety. Meaning I have not had many loans, I guess that means I'm not the ultimate consumer. Oh yes I also told both banks that my home is paid for, I wrote a check for it when I bought it.

Do Not Understand Banks Right Now's picture
Do Not Understa... - Feb 7, 2010

I too have a credit score in the 780-800 range. Depends on which of the 3 Credit Reports that are pulled.

Been in the Trucking Industry 12 years now. Have been off since last May due to the slowdowns. Between 2001 to 2008, I took out a total of $152,000 in loans amongst various lending sources, $54K of those loans were at my local bank of whom I have been a customer with for 13 years. Every single one of those loans were paid off in 1/2 the time of what my loan repayment schedule called for. (2 year note paid off in 1 year - 5 year note paid off in 2 1/2 years - etc) As of today, all those notes have a 0 balance and are clearly marked "Paid as Agreed-Paid in Full-0 Balance" on all 3 credit reporting agencies.

I have been offered a long term contract that pays approximately $120K a year from an exclusive use Transport Company. After my projected expenses, I could possibly clear $70-$80K a year at the very minimum for the next 5 years. To fulfill this contract, I have located a $42K truck for $29K.

I was turned down by my personal bank for this loan and have talked to 3 other banks with my proposal only to hear "Sorry, we can't help you at this time".

This is ridiculous. I have not been turned down for a loan in over 20 years. My house is paid for also, and my monthly living expenses are well below the $800 range. I also have a nice cash reserve to survive on, but am not wlling to spend that money to obtain this contract when, in my opinion, I am not a "Credit Risk" and should be given the respect I have earned when it comes to my financial history with regards to borrowing money.

Yes, something needs to be done because America will not recover under the conditions the Obama Administration currently have us under.

gb gb's picture
gb gb - Jan 28, 2010

Are banks not lending or Is there no demand for good loans?

I suspect banks want to lend but not many good loaning opportunities available.

Politicians keep saying banks are not lending and it is good way to score with gullible people and buy votes.

paddy hirsch, editor's picture
paddy hirsch, editor - Jan 28, 2010

Scott's right about the bond rates. And the statement that the banks would collect interest on maturity is also incorrect, they'd get paid in increments, just as most bond payments are made.
There is one further clarification, made by a commenter on the Business Insider, where this video was posted.

"The banks aren't just getting money from the Fed, they also have long term deposits in place from ordinary account holders. That money they can use to buy T notes, substituting it with the money they borrow from the Fed's window. That keeps them capitalized. When the end of the 28 day period comes, they just rotate one Fed loan for another. Meanwhile, those long term deposits are just cranking interest payments by the Treasury. So the video is not entirely accurate, in that it doesn't include other depositors' money, but the spirit of it is correct."

So, a bit sloppy this time. My apologies.