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Oil skids

Crude prices hit 4-year lows after Merrill Lynch predicted a drop to $25 a barrel. Bloomberg quotes Chip Hodge of MFC Global: "We've got the U.S, U.K., Europe and Japan all in recession for the first time since World War II, and the oil market is reacting."

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It is our obsession of wanting to understand and 'know' what is going on around us. If we tried to focus on the IMPACT of what is possible instead of what we THINK might happen then maybe we can have more meaningful discussions.

Lets talk about what would happen if oil hit $25 versus what would happen if it hit $200 and everything in between. Forget about what it WILL do.

Who do you think will be a better chess player? The one who predicts their opponent's next move or anticipates every possible move and responds accordingly?

The only expectation one should have in a world of uncertainty is that one does NOT know what will happen.

OK, so is it just me or did I hear somebody earlier this year making predictions of $250+++ oil? Now it's going to $25? I would really like to see Merril annouce "Well, we played out all of the scenarios and we are fairly certain oil will be somwhere between $5 and $500 for at least the next year or so. If we told you anything else, it would just be a wild guess!"

Could not have said any better. They along with 'suuposed' experts, analysts, rating agencies are the people that contributed to tech bubble, the housing bubble and what not. We are also at fault for putting importance to them and fueling this culture of 'relying on experts'. Bring these people to answer for these comments and analysis. Remember Milken!

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