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The Appalachian Trail Index
On Tuesday, David checked in on some unconventional economic indicators from early in the recession, and while researching, another unusual indicator came to our attention - the Appalachian Trail Index.
The premise being that when the going gets tough, the tough go hiking.
The Wall Street Journal appeared to be the first to report on this "phenomenon" in an article from 2009, "Trailing Indicators: Out of a Job, Some Decide to Take a Hike":
Depending on one's level of optimism, an Appalachian Trail through-hiker is either a symbol of a jobless recovery or of a still-deepening recession.
So we called up the Appalachian Trail Conservancy to check in on the numbers, and spoke with their publisher, Brian King.
King said that yes, the number of people who report completing a thru-hike has been climbing since the start of the recession:
(Source: Appalachian Trail Conservancy)
But he thinks the Appalachian Trail as a trailing, leading or even mildly informative indicator smacks of hooey:
Hiking 2200 miles for 5 or 6 months is not a cheap thrill, like, you know, sitting in the park feeding pigeons.
While he's dubious about the Appalachian Trail as a quality index, he did credit the Wall Street Journal article with one very specific economic fallout:
When that story came out, there was one fellow who was in that situation and using his unemployment check to pay for his hike. Well, he got busted.
To sum up: A down economy? Bad for pets, good for the Marines and unclear what it's done for the Appalachian Trail. But what we do know is that if you decide to finance your hike with unemployment insurance, you shouldn't brag about it in a major newspaper.
(Photo courtesy of the Appalachian Trail Conservancy)
I am one of those 2011 thru-hikers.
I know first hand that the economy must've had at least some effect on the trail's population. At least a dozen of the people that I spoke to on the trail said something to the effect of: "well I can't get a job, so why not?"
Many of these people were collecting unemployment to fund their trip.
For more insights on the trail life, I encourage you to checkout my blog:
Hmm... very interesting, Badger. So perhaps the Appalachian Trail Index is a reliable indicator after all.
I think for Brian King (and this is the problem with a lot of these unconventional indicators) there's a causality question.
He said without doubt that there was a big bump in hikers after Bill Bryson's A Walk in the Woods came out, but an impact from the recession is less clear. Are the numbers up because of Mark Sanford? Is it easier now to report a thru-hike? Are there more retirees? It's all a bit murky and the increase in numbers is pretty subtle.
So your blog says you hiked the whole thing - congratulations!
Why did you do it?
