Raymond Learsy considers $50 a fair price for oil. That may be so, for the Saudi oil which was discovered 40 years ago. Unfortunately, no one outside Saudi Aramco has any real idea of how much of that is still left. Meanwhile, most production outside Saudi Arabia is declining relentlessly, even at present prices, and discovering and developing new fields costs far more than $50 per barrel, probably more than $100 per barrel. A drop in price to $50 per barrel would shut down almost all exploration, most development, and many small producers.

The only producer with any significant surplus productive capacity is Saudi Aramco, and their surplus capacity is unverified, and in any case consists of low grade crude for which there is limited refining capacity.